NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Monday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Monday's schedule based on the best odds.

Last Updated: May 8, 2023 8:30 AM EDT • 5 minute read

A pair of Game 4s are on tap Monday in the Association, and the road teams will look to even up their respective series. Our top NBA player props and best bets for Monday are based on the best NBA odds.

After back-to-back blowouts in the Western Conference semifinals, can we get another competitive game out of the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers? The Lakers routed the Dubs at home Saturday, and another win at Crypto.com Arena would give L.A. a commanding 3-1 series lead.

The Miami Heat shut down the New York Knicks on Saturday, and Miami is in position to go up 3-1 in front of its home crowd as well. Will the home teams prevail, or will the road dogs steal a win to even up their respective series?

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Monday (odds via BetMGM, FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

New York Knicks (+4.5) vs. Miami Heat
Golden State Warriors (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Monday’s NBA best bets

Player prop: Stephen Curry Over 41.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-111 via FanDuel)
Player prop: Gabe Vincent Over 19.5 points, rebounds, and assists (+100 via FanDuel)
Spread: Heat -4.5 vs. Knicks (-105 via BetMGM)

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Monday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Stephen Curry Over 41.5 PRAs (-111 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After a blowout Game 3 loss, the Warriors are in danger of falling into a 3-1 deficit with a loss in Los Angeles on Monday. The Dubs will need to be much better than they were Saturday, and that starts with Steph Curry, who’s played some of his best basketball when the lights are brightest.

Down 0-2 in the first-round series to Sacramento, Curry delivered 36 points, six rebounds and three assists in a Game 3 victory. In the winner-take-all Game 7, he dropped 50 points - the most ever in a Game 7. Going back to last season, the Dubs were down 2-1 in the Finals to Boston, when Curry came through with a timely 43 points to shift momentum back to his team. Curry averaged 41.8 points, rebounds, and assists in the regular season and 43.5 PRAs against Sacramento in the first round.

He’s struggled to get it going against the Lakers, but it’s largely been a matter of shot volume rather than efficiency. I wrote up Curry having a big game in Saturday’s Best Bets column, and it was the wrong read. I’m doubling down, as the Warriors must come out with a sense of urgency. Curry has his best game of the series in Game 4, and we’re taking the Over on this PRA prop with complete confidence.

Player prop: Gabe Vincent Over 19.5 PRAs (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Curry’s 41.5 PRA prop seems far too low, but so does Gabe Vincent’s. The Heat guard has been huge for Miami throughout the playoffs, averaging 13.9 points, 4.9 assists, 1.1 rebounds, and 2.9 triples across 30.8 minutes per contest. He’s started all eight of the Heat’s postseason games, and his minutes are up from the 25.9 per game he averaged in the regular season. After a dismal Game 3 performance, we can take advantage of a line that’s moved down way too much.

Vincent finished Game 3 with just five points, four rebounds, and no assists, while shooting 1-of-8 from the floor and 0-of-4 from beyond the arc. He started and logged 30 minutes, so this wasn’t due to lack of playing time. It was just an off night. In three games prior, he posted 21 points, 5.3 assists, and 1.3 rebounds, so some positive regression is in order against the Knicks in Game 4. Vincent has provided at least 20 PRAs in five of eight playoff games and 19 in another. Expect improved shooting and playmaking Monday, and take the Over.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Monday's NBA game picks

Spread: Heat -4.5 vs. Knicks (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

This one is offered at DraftKings and PointsBet for -110 odds, but FanDuel lists it at -108, and BetMGM gives us our best value at -105. We’ll take our wager there and utilize the slightly longer odds.

The Heat have been … hot, covering in six straight and eight of the last nine. Miami took Game 1 in New York and kept Game 2 competitive, covering a 10-point spread on the road without Jimmy Butler. With Butler back in action, Miami dominated Game 3 and won by 19.

The Heat were favored by four in Game 3, but after a commanding win, the line has surprisingly moved up just half a point for Game 4. New York’s defense has been doing its job, holding Miami to just 106 points per game in the series, but Miami’s defense has been even better.

The Knicks won their first-round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers by slowing down the game and limiting star players, but Miami has played at the same pace as New York in this series (93.2), role players have stepped up, and Butler has continued to cook. The Heat have held the Knicks to just 99.3 points per game, and we’re expecting another low-scoring slugfest in South Beach. The Heat are the better team right now, and they’ll show that with another W.

NBA best bets made 5/8/2023 at 7 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Zachary Hanshew

Zak Hanshew has been covering the NFL and NBA since 2018, writing about fantasy sports, daily fantasy sports, and sports betting. He joined Sportsbook Review for the 2022-23 NBA season and looks forward to his third NBA campaign. Zak has had bylines for over half a dozen publications, most notably Yahoo and NBA.com. As a sports writer, Zak has been recognized for his attention to detail and insight into NBA betting trends. Zak is an avid NBA bettor who loves a prop bet, particularly a favorable combo prop. Of particular interest in the betting space are long shots such as first-basket scorer, but nothing beats a triple-double prop. He loves to target plus-money props with educated and well-researched analysis to back up his picks. Zak holds a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree from West Virginia University and roots avidly for his Mountaineers.