NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Friday

Check out our NBA player props and best bets for Friday's schedule based on the best odds.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: May 5, 2023 5:37 PM EDT • 6 minute read

Will Devin Booker and Kevin Durant be able to lead the Phoenix Suns to a victory in the absence of Chris Paul? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Friday's NBA playoff schedule using the best NBA odds.

Due to a groin injury, Chris Paul is anticipated to be absent from Games 3 through 5, and this has affected many of the player props for the Phoenix Suns players on Friday. As the best NBA betting sites adjust their odds, the question arises whether they have over-adjusted or failed to move the line enough to account for Paul's absence in Game 3.

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Friday (odds via Bet365, Caesars, and BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel)

Boston Celtics (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns (-4)

Friday’s NBA best bets

Player prop: James Harden Over 7.5 assists vs. Celtics (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Jayson Tatum Under 30.5 points vs. 76ers (-131 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Devin Booker Under 7.5 assists vs. Nuggets (+108 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Deandre Ayton Over 15.5 points vs. Nuggets (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Friday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: James Harden Over 7.5 assists vs. Celtics (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Harden is 0-2 in going Over his assist total in the series against the Boston Celtics, but an adjustment has been made to his price and we have to take notice of it. During the regular season, it was very common for Harden to trade with a total of 10.5 assists. However, in this series against the Celtics, he closed at 8.5 for Game 1 and Game 2. After recording only six and four assists in the first two games, his total now sits at 7.5 and the juice on the Over isn't as high as it should be, at least at two specific sportsbooks.

Harden is projected to drop 8.8 dimes against the Celtics on Friday, so you can see how the adjustment from 8.5 down to 7.5 really changes our opinion on this total. With this projection, we can price Harden at -180 to record more than 7.5 assists.

For this prop, you will want to do your shopping at bet365, which is offering the best price by far at -125. If you don't have a bet365 account, take your action to BetMGM, which is offering the Over at -130. Sportsbooks such as Pinnacle have the over trading at -147 and Caesars is at -145, emphasizing the value of the price we're receiving from bet365.

Player prop: Jayson Tatum Under 30.5 points vs. 76ers (-131 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I didn't wake up on Friday morning with the intention of having to sweat a Jayson Tatum Under on a points prop, but sometimes, a certain price in the market just forces your hand and leaves you with no choice. That's exactly what we have with Tatum on Friday.

Caesars opened Tatum with a total of 28.5 points, while most of our best NBA betting sites opened him at 29.5 points. Judging by their line movement, this may have caused Caesars to attract a lot of early action on the Over, driving their line up to 30.5 points. The kicker here is that Caesars is still at 30.5 points, while our other best sports betting apps have dropped their total to 28.5 points. Caesars is two points higher than every other sportsbook on this prop, making it a rogue price at its finest.

Our projection for Tatum is 28.6 points, so you can see how those extra two points are very impactful in this situation. Based on this projection, we can price Tatum at -155 to score fewer than 30.5 points. Pinnacle has the Under 28.5 points trading at -116, which is the equivalent of a -165 on the Under 30.5 points.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Player prop: Devin Booker Under 7.5 assists vs. Nuggets (+108 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Chris Paul unavailable for Game 3 against the Denver Nuggets due to an injury, we've seen the assists props for both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker trade at much higher prices than we're used to seeing. Durant is usually a plus money bet for an Over 5.5 assists, but on Friday, you have to lay -125, while Booker is up to 7.5 with the Over showing increased juice depending on where you shop.

The narrative is definitely there for both Booker and Durant to have increased assists with so many assists leaving the lineup, but I'm not buying it, at least not at these prices. For perspective, in Booker's last 10 games without Paul, he averaged 6.1 assists per game, and Durant wasn't even on the roster during that time.

Booker is projected to drop 7.1 dimes against the Nuggets on Friday, which is a full assist higher than that 6.1 I highlighted, and we're still seeing a nice edge against the price point, even with this high projection.

We can price Booker at -135 to go Under the total of 7.5 assists with this projection, and I fully expect this prop to be trading at minus money across the board by tipoff.

Player prop: Deandre Ayton Over 15.5 points vs. Nuggets (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I've just returned home from Halifax, Nova Scotia where I attended a work event and discussed with fellow NBA bettors about how Ayton has been given a free pass for not living up to his draft status due to the success of the Suns team. Wouldn't you know it, on my first day back, the numbers lead me to bet on Ayton to go Over his points total in a crucial game for the Suns' season.

The projection for Ayton on Friday is 18.2 points, which is significantly higher than his total of 15.5 points. Although Ayton will be without his point guard Paul, who often sets him up for easy baskets, I think this narrative is what allows for a solid price point. Based on this projection, we can price Ayton at -170 to score more than 15.5 points on Friday.

The best price for this prop is -115 via bet365, although you can also get -120 via BetMGM and Caesars. I highly recommend placing this bet quickly as the Over is gaining momentum. PointsBet and FanDuel have both increased their total to 16.5, while DraftKings has raised its juice from -120 to -130.

NBA best bets made 05/05/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.