NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Monday
Can the Philadelphia 76ers cover a large spread? How will star players fare in a pair of marquee Monday matchups? Our top NBA player props and best bets for Monday are based on the best NBA odds.
The Philadelphia 76ers might be without superstar Joel Embiid as the Eastern Conference semifinal matchup opens up at TD Garden against the Boston Celtics. We’ve got a spread bet and a first basket wager ready to roll for that matchup.
The Phoenix Suns will look to get back on track against the Denver Nuggets in Game 2 of the Western Conference semis, and we’ve got props available for both of Denver’s stars in Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Monday (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday’s NBA schedule and odds
(Odds vis DraftKings)
- Philadelphia 76ers (+9.5) at Boston Celtics
- Phoenix Suns (+4) at Denver Nuggets
Monday’s NBA best bets
- Player prop: Jamal Murray Over 24.5 points (-125 via BetMGM) vs. Suns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Nikola Jokic Under 13.5 rebounds (+100 via FanDuel) vs. Suns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Jaylen Brown to score first basket (+500 via PointsBet) vs. 76ers ⭐⭐⭐
- Spread: 76ers +10 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Celtics ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Monday’s NBA player prop picks
Player prop: Jamal Murray Over 24.5 points (-125 via BetMGM) vs. Suns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over the last 17 head-to-head matchups between Devin Booker and Jamal Murray, it is actually Murray’s team that has come out on top 15 times.
How good has Murray been against the Suns in his career? He has averaged 21.1 points per game in 20 regular-season appearances, which is his highest average against any team. Not counting the four games he played against Phoenix as a rookie, Murray has scored at least 25 points against the Suns in nine of his last 16.
Murray has been hot in the playoffs, averaging 28.3 points per game overall — 18.5 on the road and 33.3 at home. He’s scored at least 25 in three of four at home this postseason, including back-to-back 30-point outings heading into Game 2.
Murray’s points prop is set all the way down at -140 on FanDuel and PointsBet, -136 on DraftKings, and -127 on Caesars. Our best odds come in at -125 on BetMGM. We’re banking on Murray staying hot at home and putting up more points against his favorite opponent.
Player prop: Nikola Jokic Under 13.5 rebounds (+100 via FanDuel) vs. Suns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jokic dominated Phoenix on the glass on Saturday, grabbing 19 boards, and he’s now pulled down at least 15 in all three matchups with the Suns this season. After another huge game, his rebound prop is up from 12.5 in Game 1 to 13.5 for Game 2.
We hit on Jimmy Butler going Under his point total in Sunday’s Game 1 against the Knicks, and we’re going back for another Under from a star player.
The Suns were crushed in the rebounding department in Game 1, losing the battle 49-38, including a lopsided 16-8 disparity on the offensive glass. After losing big on Saturday, I’d expect the Suns to focus on being more aggressive on the glass and keeping the two-time MVP from getting his team second-chance opportunities.
Jokic hit this rebound prop in just 21 of 69 games in the regular season and postseason combined, and we’ll take advantage of a line that has moved up just a bit too far.
Player prop: Jaylen Brown to score first basket (+500 via PointsBet) vs. 76ers ⭐⭐⭐
We don’t often feature first basket wagers in this article, but there’s a great opportunity to cash in on plus-money odds tonight with Joel Embiid doubtful. Embiid sat out 16 times in the regular season and once in the postseason, and in the games he missed, his team gained possession from the opening tip only four times. Tonight, we can expect Paul Reed or Tobias Harris to jump against Al Horford.
According to lineups.com, the Celtics took the first field goal attempt in a game 57.3% of the time in the regular season, which ranked eighth in the Association. Brown took the first field goal attempt in a game 25.3% of the time, which was tops among all players, and he took his team’s first shot 34.3% of the time. He scored his team’s first shot in three of six games in the first round, and he scored the game’s first basket overall in two of them.
BetMGM offers Brown as the first basket scorer for odds of +350, Caesars and DraftKings go longer at +425, FanDuel’s odds are +480, and PointsBet gives us juicy +500 odds. We’re sprinkling some money on Jaylen Brown to score first against Philly tonight given his success in that department and the high probability his team gains the opening possession.
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
NBA game picks
Spread: 76ers +10 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Celtics ⭐⭐⭐⭐
No Joel Embiid? No problem. The 76ers were without Embiid 16 times in the regular season, and the team won 11 of those games straight up, including nine on the road. Philly went 10-6 ATS with Embiid out of action and 10-1 ATS on the road. The 76ers were most recently without Embiid in the Game 4 win over Brooklyn at Barclays Center.
Boston won three of four regular-season matchups against Philly and covered in all four of them, but Boston showed some flaws in the first-round series against Atlanta, giving up plenty of points to Trae Young and Co. and losing at home with Dejounte Murray suspended.
The Sixers went 5-1 ATS as 5-point or more dogs in the regular season, and the Celtics were just 9-7 when favored by at least 10 points at home. Philly covered in both games they played as double-digit dogs.
In the series-clinching win over Brooklyn, Paul Reed was huge with 15 rebounds, and Tobias Harris contributed a big 25/12 double-double. Tyrese Maxey has stepped up in a huge way on offense when Embiid was sidelined, and James Harden can still make a major impact. Philly is a sound defensive team and deep enough on offense to cover this huge spread.
NBA best bets made 05/01/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
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- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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