Game 4 of the NBA Finals goes Friday night with the Denver Nuggets looking for another road win over the Miami Heat. Here is our Nuggets-Heat prediction based on the latest NBA odds.
The Denver Nuggets cruised to a 109-94 victory over the Miami Heat during Wednesday's Game 3 behind the tandem of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The Nuggets now get the opportunity to take a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals before the series moves back to Denver.
Our best sports betting apps have listed the Nuggets as road favorites ahead of Friday's Game 4, but we do expect an inspired effort from the Heat in an attempt to even the series. For our favorite bet, we're counting on a player that's struggled to perform in this series.
Here is our best Nuggets-Heat prediction (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nuggets vs. Heat prediction
Michael Porter Jr. Over 6.5 rebounds (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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Much has been made about Michael Porter Jr.'s offensive struggles during this series. He's shooting 25.8% from the floor in the NBA Finals, including 15.8% from long range. His inefficiency has led to an average of 7.0 points per game.
However, Porter has still found a way to provide an impact with his work on the glass and as a defender. He's averaging 8.7 rebounds per contest in the series, clearing this rebound line in two of the three games.
Porter has posted a hit rate on this rebound prop of 67% during the playoffs while finishing over this mark in 12 of 18 outings. He's collected seven-plus rebounds in six of his last seven contests, which includes four double-digit board efforts. Porter is averaging 8.1 rebounds per game in the playoffs.
The 24-year-old is also averaging 11.3 rebound opportunities per game during this playoff run, according to advanced tracking at NBA.com. That average has spiked up to 12.7 during the NBA Finals, which is third among all players behind Jokic and Miami's Bam Adebayo.
We project just below seven rebounds for Porter in Game 4, making this plus-money price a three-star play. But there is upside here, too, as Porter could see the floor even more if the forward is knocking down the shots he's capable of making.
Nuggets vs. Heat best odds
|Over 6.5 rebounds||Over 6.5 rebounds||Over 5.5 rebounds||Over 5.5 rebounds||Over 6.5 rebounds|
When we placed this bet on Thursday, the best line was a +120 offering on the Over of 6.5 rebounds at DraftKings. The current best price on that Over is now at FanDuel, which is offering a value of +116.
That's because three of our best sports betting sites have dropped Porter's rebound prop down to 5.5, with the Over juiced to -160 or -165. If you don't mind paying the vig, that could be a better way of playing this particular prop.
There are plenty of other opportunities to bet on discounted prices for Porter in Game 4 after his showing in the NBA Finals to this point. For example, his 3-point prop has been set at 1.5 after being priced at 2.5 for much of the postseason.
Nuggets vs. Heat odds
Nuggets vs. Heat odds analysis
The Nuggets are 3.5-point favorites at our best NBA betting sites, which is identical to the closing spread for Game 3 after the line opened at -2.5.
The total is sitting at 210.5 at the best sportsbooks after the Over/Under closed at 213 last time out.
The winner of the game has covered in all three meetings of this series thus far, while the Under is 2-1 through three outings.
Nuggets vs. Heat game info
- Date: Friday, June 9, 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Nuggets-Heat pick made 06/08/2023 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
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