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Malcolm Brogdon of the Boston Celtics defends his title in our 2024 Sixth Man of the Year odds.
Malcolm Brogdon of the Boston Celtics wins the 2023 Sixth Man of the Year. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

The Dallas Mavericks are in Boston to take on the NBA-leading Celtics on Wednesday night. Here are our Mavericks-Celtics NBA picks

Both the Mavericks (9-7) and Celtics (13-4) are coming off of losses heading into their Wednesday matchup. The Mavericks may be without forward Maxi Kleber (doubtful) and Spencer Dinwiddie (questionable). They are led by guard Luka Doncic who is averaging an NBA-best 33.5 point-per-game.

The Celtics are enjoying a great start to the season and currently have the best record in the NBA. Forward Jayson Tatum may be playing the best basketball of his career, averaging 30.2 points per game and contributing across the board. Boston is 6-1 at home and enjoyed a nine-game winning streak before Monday night’s loss. There is some room for concern, however, as Tatum has been listed as questionable for this game.

Here are our Mavericks vs. Celtics picks (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA best bets for Wednesday.

Mavericks vs. Celtics Game Info

Date: Wednesday, Nov. 23, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA

Mavericks vs. Celtics Odds

Mavericks vs. Celtics Odds Analysis

Since opening, the spread has moved from -6 for the Celtics to -4.5 at most sportsbooks and -4 at a few. As of late Wednesday morning, 75% of the wagers are on the Celtics.

The Over/Under has moved from 222 to a consensus line of 218.5. Sixty-two percent of the wagers are on the Over as of Wednesday morning.

Mavericks vs. Celtics Picks

  • Spread: Mavericks +4.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
  • Over/Under: Under 218.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
  • Prop: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points (-125 via DraftKings)

Mavericks vs. Celtics ATS Pick

Mavericks +4.5 (-107) ★★★

The Celtics are the best team in basketball for many reasons, but a big part of their success has been due to Tatum. If it were a playoff game he would probably play, but after suffering a left ankle sprain on Monday, Wednesday might be a good night for the Celtics to rest their star. 

The odds still haven’t moved enough to reflect the possibility of Tatum sitting out this game, so I think the Mavericks offer good value at +4.5, despite their awful 4-11-1 record against the spread so far this season. Right now, the sportsbooks are in consensus on the spread, but you can get the best odds via Points Bet at -107. 

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Mavericks vs. Celtics O/U Pick

Under 218.5 (-107) ★★★★

Since Doncic’s rookie season in 2018-2019, these two teams have played eight times and have only combined for over 218.5 points twice. If you go back to 2016-2017, they would’ve played to the Under in 10 out of 12 contests.

Surprisingly, the Celtics are in the middle of the pack when it comes to defensive rating so far this season, but the Mavericks are ranked fourth. Dallas gives up an NBA-low 105.3 points per game, and if Tatum is unable to play, we may see a similar number put up by the Celtics. I like the value on the Under, and again, PointsBet gives the best odds at -107.

Mavericks vs. Celtics Prop Pick

Doncic Over 31.5 points (-125) ★★★★

Doncic is averaging 33.5 points per game so far this season, and I expect his high-scoring numbers to continue. If Dinwiddie sits out, Doncic should see a ridiculous amount of the ball, and should put up a lot of shots considering he is averaging nearly 23 shot attempts per game this season. 

The Celtics' success has come from their ability to score the ball rather than their ability to stop their opponent, and unless Doncic has an off night, he should be able to get his. Expect him to get over 31.5 points, and you can find odds of -125 via DraftKings.

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Mavericks-Celtics picks made 11/23/2022 at 11:35 a.m. ET.