🏀 NBA Finals MVP Odds & Predictions: Should You Bet Wemby or Brunson?

The NBA Finals tip off tonight with Game 1 between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC), and I'm breaking down the latest NBA Finals MVP odds and predictions to win the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player award.

This is clearly a two-horse race on paper with Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Brunson priced as the only players with a realistic shot to win MVP, which tracks with the historical precedent of this award. Below, I break down the live NBA Finals MVP odds, the case for the two betting favorites, and my favorite long-shot value bet to make before Game 1.

📊 Live NBA Finals MVP odds: Knicks vs. Spurs

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.

It shouldn't surprise anyone to see Wembanyama and Brunson dealing at +200 or shorter while the entire rest of the field is priced at +2000 or worse - that's to be expected in a series with two central figures leading their respective sides. The more interesting note here is the actual price compared to their team's odds to win the series.

The Spurs are dealing no better than -185 to win the NBA Finals, which is only marginally shorter than Wemby's best odds to win MVP (-165) as of Wednesday afternoon. That means oddsmakers price in roughly a 2.7% chance that San Antonio wins and someone else takes home MVP honors. Similarly, the gap between the Knicks' best odds (+160) and Brunson's MVP odds (+200) signals a roughly 5.1% chance of a split-ticket outcome.

Here's a look at the full oddsboard via FanDuel with the implied probability and expected return on a $10 wager according to our odds converter:

• Victor Wembanyama (SAS): -165 (62.3%), bet $10 to win $16.06
• Jalen Brunson (NYK): +200 (33.3%), bet $10 to win $30
• Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK): +2200 (4.3%), bet $10 to win $230
• OG Anunoby (NYK): +3500 (2.8%), bet $10 to win $360
• Stephon Castle (SAS): +7000 (1.4%), bet $10 to win $710
• De'Aaron Fox (SAS): +10000 (1.0%), bet $10 to win $1,010
• Mikal Bridges (NYK): +12500 (0.8%), bet $10 to win $1,260
• Dylan Harper (SAS): +15000 (0.7%), bet $10 to win $1,510
• Josh Hart (NYK): +17500 (0.6%), bet $10 to win $1,760
• Devin Vassell (SAS): +25000 (0.4%), bet $10 to win $2,510
• Mitchell Robinson (NYK): +100000 (0.1%), bet $10 to win $10,010
• Julian Champagnie (SAS): +100000 (0.1%), bet $10 to win $10,010
• Miles McBride (NYK): +100000 (0.1%), bet $10 to win $10,010
• Keldon Johnson (SAS): +100000 (0.1%), bet $10 to win $10,010
• Carter Bryant (SAS): +100000 (0.1%), bet $10 to win $10,010
• Landry Shamet (NYK): +100000 (0.1%), bet $10 to win $10,010
• Luke Kornet (SAS): +100000 (0.1%), bet $10 to win $10,010

🏀 NBA Finals MVP favorites: Should you bet Wemby or Brunson?

For each of the last 56 years, the NBA Finals MVP has gone to a player on the championship team; only Jerry West (1969) won this award in defeat across all of NBA history.

That means handicapping this market is essentially a two-step exercise: who wins the series, and which player carries the load? In this case, that second answer is pretty evident - one of Wembanyama or Brunson will almost certainly take home MVP honors, and your lean depends on your NBA Finals series prediction.

Here's the case for each star player to win NBA Finals MVP honors:

Will Wemby win NBA Finals MVP?

Here's an easy argument to make: Wembanyama is the best player in the world and a two-way force for the clear title favorites, and he's currently on pace to shatter just about every conceivable record en route to GOAT status when he retires.

OK, that might be getting ahead of ourselves, but it does feel like history will look back on this moment as the metamorphosis of Wembanyama from an emerging superstar to a potential all-time great. He looked the part in the Western Conference Finals, winning MVP honors with 27.3 PPG and 10.9 RPG while blocking 2.7 shots per game.

The reigning Defensive Player of the Year will have a major impact on this series even if he never touches the basketball, though his offensive ceiling is what makes him such a dangerous threat in this market. It's hard for me to imagine any other Spurs player stealing this award from Wemby given his two-way impact; in fact, I'd go as far as to call that one of the biggest upsets in NBA Finals MVP history if it happens. (It won't.)

Will Brunson win NBA Finals MVP?

In just about any other matchup, Brunson would be the central star with a spotlight fit for the king of New York - and he's played like a potential Finals MVP winner en route to the Knicks' first championship appearance since 1999.

A top-15 scorer in the regular season (26 PPG), Brunson has upped the ante this postseason with 26.9 PPG and 6.6 APG on a 30.5% usage rate - nearly 50% higher than any other rotation player and nearly twice as high as any other ball-handler. He's been the engine for the most efficient offense in NBA playoffs history, guiding the Knicks to a historic 11-game win streak entering Game 1 tonight.

Even a shooting slump in the Eastern Conference Finals (48.7% from the field, 18.2% from deep) wasn't enough to keep Brunson off the podium as the MVP winner, and it'd be surprising for him to get snubbed in a Knicks win. Yet his lack of defensive impact opens the door for a "Wemby stopper" to steal the award a la Andre Iguodala in 2015.

💰 NBA Finals MVP picks: My best bet & favorite long shot

Ultimately, I think this series will be defined by how Wembanyama and Brunson produce in a leading role (no surprise there), which informs how I'm attacking this market. That slight gap in probability between one of those two winning MVP honors and their teams hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy opens a sliver of opportunity for us to profit.

Best bet to win Finals MVP: Victor Wembanyama (-165)

I'm actually a bit surprised that his odds aren't more aligned with the Spurs' odds to win the title, considering that his next-closest competitor (Stephon Castle) is dealing as high as 70/1. If San Antonio wins the Finals and Wemby is on the court for even half of those games, he's winning this award in a landslide, especially if his impact is felt offensively.

The biggest advantage for Wemby is the sheer gravity of his presence on both ends of the court. Even if he doesn't put up gaudy stats, he's sure to earn the lion's share of credit from the media and voters in a Spurs series win, so I love the extra value at these -165 odds via DraftKings and some of our other best NBA betting sites.

Best Finals MVP long shot: OG Anunoby (+4000)

There's always one player entering the NBA Finals whose MVP case hinges entirely on their ability to shut down the opposing star. This year, that honor falls on Anunoby, who chased around Wemby in the regular season and should draw the assignment in these Finals to preserve Karl-Anthony Towns' energy on the offensive end.

The only way that the Knicks win this series, in my view, is if New York can effectively neutralize Wemby's impact on the offensive end while relying on the egalitarian offensive approach that has fueled their historic numbers to date. That opens the door wide open for Anunoby to frustrate Wemby on one end, hit some threes on the other, and help us 40x our return on a long-shot NBA Finals MVP bet at bet365.

🏆 Past NBA Finals MVP winners

Here's a look at the last 10 NBA Finals MVP winners with their pre-series odds:

❓ NBA Finals MVP FAQ

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Who is favored to win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?

Victor Wembanyama is the favorite to win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP with -165 odds, which imply a 62.26% chance that he'll win the award.

What are Jalen Brunson's NBA Finals MVP odds?

Jalen Brunson has the second-shortest NBA Finals MVP odds at +200, which imply a 33.33% chance that he'll win the award.

Has a player ever won NBA Finals MVP on the losing team?

Jerry West won the 1969 NBA Finals MVP even though his Los Angeles Lakers lost to the Boston Celtics in seven games. West averaged 37.9 points per game in the series and remains the only player on the losing team to win NBA Finals MVP honors.

Who votes for the NBA Finals MVP?

The award is decided by an 11-member panel of media members, who cast their votes after the final game of the series.

Who won NBA Finals MVP last year?

Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2025 NBA Finals MVP, averaging 30.3 points and 5.6 assists in a seven-game series win over the Indiana Pacers.

What is the NBA Finals MVP trophy called?

The award is officially the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award, named for the 11-time champion and Celtics legend. He never won Finals MVP in his career, as the award was introduced in his final season (1969) and awarded to Jerry West.

📺 How to watch Knicks vs. Spurs: NBA Finals Game 1

• Date: Wednesday, June 3
• Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Frost Bank Center (San Antonio)
• TV: ABC