Jalen Duren Next Team Odds: Pistons Surge as Favorites After Lakers, Celtics Sign Centers
The most likely team Jalen Duren will play for this upcoming season, according to movement on prediction market apps, is the Detroit Pistons at 80%. The Jalen Duren next team odds list the Sacramento Kings (13%) as the next most likely destination, followed by the Boston Celtics (9%).
Below, I break down where the market expects Duren to land and where I believe he will ultimately end up.
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Where will Jalen Duren play next season?
The Pistons have an 80% probability of retaining Duren after the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics signed centers (Walker Kessler and Mitchell Robinson, respectively) on Wednesday.
Detroit originally opened with a 47% probability on June 26 and was as low as 58.9% on Wednesday morning before L.A. and Boston’s signings were reported. The Kings are the next most likely landing spot for Duren, at 13%.
Despite signing Robinson, the Celtics still have a 9% probability of landing the restricted free agent.
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🏀 Who will land Jalen Duren?
Here are Duren's most likely destinations, according to the latest action on Kalshi:
| Team | Chance | Yes price |
|---|---|---|
| Pistons | 80% | 82¢ |
| Kings | 13% | 14¢ |
| Celtics | 9% | 6¢ |
Teams not listed are projected to have less than a 1% chance of landing Duren.
Pistons (80%)
Duren is only 22 years old and has already made an All-NBA team, so obviously the Pistons would prefer to retain him - but at what price?
The All-Star center averaged just 9.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs, so it is unlikely that Detroit will be willing to pay him over $50 million per year.
The Lakers had a 27% probability of landing Duren on Wednesday morning, but with them virtually out of the picture after acquiring Kessler, the Pistons have become heavy favorites.
Kings (13%)
While Sacramento is not a popular destination for star free agents, the Kings have reportedly been trying to acquire Duren.
Sacramento tied the Utah Jazz for the worst record in the Western Conference last season (22–60), so it will likely aim to get younger as it rebuilds. Duren’s age is a plus, as he is eight years younger than Domantas Sabonis, who would likely be included in a sign-and-trade, and would give the Kings a young big to pair alongside No. 7 overall draft pick Darius Acuff Jr.
Celtics (9%)
While the Celtics have two of the best wing players in the NBA - Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown - their weakness this past season was scoring in the paint. They made the third-fewest field goals per game in the restricted area during the playoffs and the fifth-fewest in the paint (non-restricted area).
Adding Duren, who made the third-most field goals per game in the restricted area during the regular season, would help Boston down low, but the Celtics are likely out of the Duren sweepstakes after signing Robinson.
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The Pistons need a secondary scorer. Cade Cunningham led Detroit with 28.1 points per game in the playoffs, followed by Tobias Harris (18.1 points per game), who signed with the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.
The Pistons' next-leading scorer who is still on the roster was Duncan Robinson at 11.8 points per game. We've already seen that Duren is not a reliable secondary scorer in the playoffs, so I expect the Pistons to send him to the Kings in a sign-and-trade, as Sacramento has several proven scoring options to offer, including Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Domantas Sabonis.
Prediction: Jalen Duren's next team will be the Sacramento Kings (13%)
💰 How to use NBA prediction markets
What does an NBA prediction market measure?
An NBA prediction market measures the likelihood of a specific outcome - such as a player signing with or being traded to a particular team.
How do prices work?
- Prices range from 1 cent to 99 cents
- A 40-cent contract implies a 40% chance based on market consensus
- If the outcome occurs, the contract settles at $1
- If not, it settles at $0
Prices move as traders react to trade rumors, reports, and free-agency developments.
Can positions be exited early?
Yes. Contracts can typically be sold before a signing is decided. That flexibility allows participants to respond to breaking news or shifts in momentum rather than holding a position until the final outcome.
How is Kalshi different from sportsbooks?
Kalshi operates as an exchange, not a house. Participants trade directly with each other, and prices are set by supply and demand instead of fixed odds.
Key distinctions include:
- Probabilities shown in cents rather than traditional odds
- Focus on real-world outcomes, not margins or spreads
- Ability to adjust or close positions before resolution
Is Kalshi regulated?
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Market rules, settlement criteria, and contract definitions are published in advance.
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