🏀 Mercury vs. Wings Prediction: WNBA Picks for Thursday, June 11
Coming off a 24-point loss to the best team in the league, the Dallas Wings (7-4) are hoping for a bounce-back performance against the Phoenix Mercury (4-9) at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas, on Prime Video.
Dallas is a 6.5-point favorite and rising up the WNBA championship odds. But both the spread and the Wings' title hopes are hard to trust when their defense is so poor. That's why I'm targeting the Over for my Mercury vs. Wings prediction.
🏀 Mercury vs. Wings prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Wings double result (-130 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.77u | Back Dallas to win the first half and the full game, as it has a first-half net rating of +12.1 in home games this year. |
| Over 168.5 (-109 via Pinnacle) | 1u → 0.93u | The Wings are third in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating, turning their games into higher-scoring matchups. |
| Azzi Fudd Over 1.5 3-pointers (-146 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.68u | Phoenix ranks 14th in 3-point attempts allowed, setting up a prime bounce-back spot for Fudd. |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.38 units
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🏆 Who will win Mercury vs. Wings?
I predict the Wings to win by six against the Mercury in what could be a high-scoring affair on Thursday. Dallas is 4-0 against non-playoff teams this year, so I expect this group to take care of business.
Score prediction: Wings 89, Mercury 83
💰 Mercury vs. Wings prediction & best bet
Over 168.5 (-109)
With Pinnacle setting the total at 168.5, I wouldn't be surprised to see the rest of our best sports betting sites drop from a consensus line of 169.5 before tipoff. But I'm interested in the Over at 169 or better.
The Wings play in a lot of track meets. They're third in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating. But the Mercury are no longer stout defensively (11th), which is why they're 7-6 to the Over.
Dallas has only contributed to two full-game totals below 170 all year. I'm taking advantage of that.
🔥 Best Mercury vs. Wings player prop bet
Azzi Fudd Over 1.5 3-pointers (-146)
The Wings will be motivated to get rookie Azzi Fudd going after she was overmatched by Minnesota Lynx guard Olivia Miles last time out. Fudd's biggest strength is her shooting and quick release, which bodes well in this matchup.
Phoenix ranks 14th in 3-point attempts allowed this year. The Mercury are also last in defending above-the-break 3-pointers and ninth in guarding spot-up shooters.
All that is music to Fudd's ears. She's knocked down multiple triples in four of her last seven outings, averaging 2.3 3-pointers per contest. I'll pay the steep vig, but the +206 on three-plus triples is also worth a sprinkle.
🚀 Mercury vs. Wings same-game parlay
My Mercury vs. Wings parlay follows the logic of my favorite angles for this matchup. Although I had to eat some juice on each leg, I like the idea of backing a fast start from Dallas in a potential track meet.
Plus, the matchup for Fudd is too favorable to ignore. It's certainly worth a nibble at +300 via DraftKings.
💵 Mercury vs. Wings SGP picks
- Over 168.5 (-125)
- Wings first half ML (-198)
- Azzi Fudd Over 1.5 3-pointers (-146)
Best odds: +300 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.3u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-35 | +8.62 units ✅ | 17.2% ✅ |
| Player props | 12-7 | +4.13 units ✅ | 21.2% ✅ |
| Parlays | 2-16 | -1.09units ❌ | -60.3% ❌ |
📊 Live Mercury vs. Wings odds
📺 How to watch Mercury vs. Wings
- Date: Thursday, June 11
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: College Park Center (Arlington, Texas)
- Streaming: Prime Video
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