⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, June 11
A shorter getaway day slate featuring eight contests narrows our options today. But let's barrel into that challenge while turning to the warm embrace of a heat-seeking slugger.
That's Pete Alonso, who leads my home run predictions today because he should get plenty of chances to do what he does best tonight, which is punish fastballs.
Elsewhere in my MLB home run picks, Pete Crow-Armstrong has been soaring for a while now, and ditto for the emerging Michael Harris II.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 11
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso home run (+385 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.77u | Will get a whole lot of fastballs tonight, and he's been nailing those. |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong home run (+298 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.60u | Boasts a 54.5% hard-hit rate against changeups. |
| Michael Harris II home run (+405 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.81u | Isn't struggling against lefties while posting an .823 OPS. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.18 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+385)
As is the case with many of the modern-era mashers, Alonso lives to crush fastballs. He'll face a starter in the Mariners' Bryan Woo tonight whose heater has done him well. But the opportunity here lies in volume, as Woo throws so many four-seamers that leaking a mistake out over the plate feels inevitable.
Woo uses his fastball 49% of the time, and Alonso, who's putting up a 55.8% hard-hit rate, has registered a .759 expected slugging against that pitch.
📡 SBR Edge: Sinking, then slugging
Woo uses a sinker as his primary secondary pitch when facing a righty, and Alonso is putting up a 65.6% hard-hit rate against that offering.
π₯ More home run picks today
Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (+298)
A sputtering start when Crow-Armstrong put up a mediocre .669 OPS in March and April is long behind him, as he remains red-hot with a 1.174 across the past two weeks.
He's well-positioned to keep rolling this afternoon, with the lefty in another quality matchup against Colorado Rockies' righty Ryan Feltner.
The hurler uses his fastball much more against lefties, throwing it 31% of the time as opposed to 19% to righties, according to Baseball Savant. That's a rather fun tendency for PCA, as Feltner's four-seamer is getting lambasted for a .806 expected slugging. It's the weak link in his arsenal that's led to a putrid barrel rate sitting in the sixth percentile leaguewide.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Mike Spector's best NRFI bets today.
Michael Harris II to hit a home run (+405)
Harris has turned himself into a masher from the left side, but he doesn't struggle against southpaws while putting up an .823 OPS. That's key for him tonight against Anthony Kay of the Chicago White Sox. Kay is a vulnerable lefty who leans far too much on contact for whatever success he achieves, as his K/9 sits at just 6.8.
That's not the existence you want against Harris, whose expected slugging of .549 is the 11th-best leaguewide. Kay tries to get past lefties while throwing his sweeper much more, and Harris is nailing that pitch while putting up a .640 slugging percentage and 56.3% hard-hit rate.
π Best home run parlay picks today
Aside from cornering the market on dinger blasters named Pete, my parlay today focuses on a trio of hitters in ideal matchups to capitalize on the pitch they do damage against the most.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Pete Alonso home run (+385)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong home run (+298)
- Michael Harris II home run (+405)
Best odds: +9648 via Sportsbook (0.02u -> 1.9u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-121-2 | -5.57 units β | -9.3% β |
| Home run picks | 22-82-0 | -1.60 units β | -7.41% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-26 | 0.80 units β | 1.48% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Pete Alonso is my best bet today because he's the safest of the three, at least by the standards of this volatile market, while still reasonably priced. But if you want to make a slightly greater investment, turn to Harris.
He's raised his OPS from .678 last year to .852 now, and Harris gets a quality chance to add to his success tonight. There's been a true surge in his production, and the underlying metrics show it's no fluke. Especially his 52.2% hard-hit rate, which sat at 43.4% last campaign.
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