⚾ Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Thursday, June 11

Seattle Mariners righty Bryan Woo is one of the only starting pitchers on Thursday’s eight-game Major League Baseball slate that remains in serious consideration to win a Cy Young Award based on the futures odds leaderboards, and that has me looking at his outing as one of my top MLB NRFI picks of the day. 

I usually look to games played at Coors Field as a way of identifying value from a YRFI (Yes Run First Inning, meaning at least one of the two teams will score before the second inning begins) perspective, but Ryan Feltner’s home ERA has me opposing that theory. Instead, my only YRFI play among my four-pack of wagers comes from the Rangers-Royals series finale.

⚾ Best NRFI bets today: June 11

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.72 units

💰 Best NRFI bet today

Cubs vs. Rockies (3:10 p.m. ET)

• Edward Cabrera (4.99) vs. Ryan Feltner (4.22)
• NRFI records: Cubs (40-28) vs. Rockies (26-42)

Chicago’s starting lineup entered this series with 403 career plate appearances at Coors Field, and batted a collective .312. But that success didn’t translate while scoring three runs on eight hits in Tuesday’s series opener. They now face Colorado’s best starting pitcher at Coors Field, as Ryan Feltner has a 3.24 ERA and .209 OBA in five home starts.

The Cubs hope Edward Cabrera rebounds from being rocked for eight runs in his first start back from the IL. He still owns a 79th percentile chase rate and 63rd percentile ground ball rate, which plays well in Denver’s altitude.

🔥 More NRFI picks today

Cardinals vs. Mets (1:10 p.m. ET)

• Hunter Dobbins (2.77) vs. Christian Scott (2.50)
• NRFI records: Cardinals (36-29) vs. Mets (35-32)

Prior to St. Louis blanking New York 7-0 in Tuesday’s series opener for its fifth straight win, it was averaging 6.5 runs per game with four home runs and a .846 team OPS during the four-game winning streak. But I’m banking on Mets youngster Christian Scott to disrupt that momentum, given that he has allowed just one run in his last 17.1 innings, while lowering his ERA from 4.12 in that span.

The Cardinals also pitched well with a 2.40 team ERA over its five-game winning streak. Hunter Dobbins should throw a scoreless first frame as he has allowed a .111 OBA in opponents’ first at-bats this season.

Rangers vs. Royals (2:10 p.m. ET)

• Kumar Rocker (3.54) vs. Michael Wacha (3.44)
• YRFI records: Rangers (24-43) vs. Royals (36-32)

After Kumar Rocker allowed a first inning run in his last start, his ERA now stands at 9.82 to open games. In the first frame, he has allowed a troubling .319/.400/.532 slash line to opposing batters, with a .371 BABIP that is worse than any other inning. He’s also not missing many bats, with a 7.2 K/9 rate worst that is on pace to be a career-worst. 

Meanwhile, Michael Wacha has had difficulty retiring some of Texas’ biggest bats. Corey Seager owns a .391/.417/.478 slash line in 23 at-bats against Wacha, while leadoff man Joc Pederson has taken him deep twice and posted a 1.005 OPS in a 27 at-bat sample size.

Mariners vs. Orioles (7 p.m. ET)

• Bryan Woo (3.74) vs. Kyle Bradish (3.89)
• NRFI records: Mariners (32-37) vs. Orioles (40-29)

Bryan Woo’s ERA may be on pace to rise for a third straight year, but he is also on target for a career-best FIP and walk rate. Those are big reasons why his 2.93 xERA is more in line with his actual 2.89 and 2.94 ERAs of the last two seasons.

Meanwhile, Seattle’s offense scored six runs apiece in the first two games of this series thanks to extra-inning games and timely home run hitting. But its lineup is an infirmary with leadoff man J.P. Crawford the last to land on the IL. Kyle Bradish has only allowed one earned run in 13 first innings, and should be able to improve upon that minuscule 0.69 ERA.

🚀 Best NRFI parlay today

With only eight games on Thursday's MLB slate, it didn't seem feasible to back four NRFI plays across half of the day's games. Therefore, I am following the trend in the Rangers-Royals matchup that Texas is the most profitable YRFI team in the league. But I am also siding with Scott's and Bradish's first inning success as the strongest reasons for two of the other legs of this NRFI parlay.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting NRFI picks today (June 11)

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

With my some of my MLB NRFI/YRFI plays, I am expecting regression of various levels from St. Louis' and Chicago's offenses. But for all those trends I am bucking, I am also supporting trends that the NRFI is 3-0 in Feltner's last three starts, and has also cashed in six straight times that Woo has toed the rubber.

❓ NRFI betting FAQ

What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?

NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).

What does YRFI mean?

YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.

What should I look for when betting NRFIs?

Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.