Fever vs. Aces Prediction: WNBA Picks for Sunday, July 12
Following a 48-point win yesterday, the Las Vegas Aces (17-7) are back in action when they host the Indiana Fever (13-9) at 9 p.m. ET on Sunday at the Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, on NBC.
Given Las Vegas is a 4.5-point favorite, it's safe to expect a much more competitive matchup between WNBA championship odds contenders. However, I still like the home side in my Fever vs. Aces prediction.
🏀 Fever vs. Aces prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Aces -4.5 (-105 via BetMGM) | 0.5u → 0.47u | This spread closed at 3.5 in the last head-to-head meeting without A'ja Wilson. |
| Over 181.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1u → 0.91u | Since 2024, Las Vegas is 5-1 to the Over in games with no rest. |
| Chelsea Gray Over 11.5 points (-125 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.8u | Chelsea Gray has cleared this line in eight of her 11 home games, averaging 13.1 points. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.18 units
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🏆 Who will win Fever vs. Aces?
I predict the Aces will claim a six-point victory over the Fever in a game featuring plenty of offense. These are the two best offensive teams in the league, with the Aces leading the WNBA in offensive rating (112.5) and the Fever ranking second (111.3). Given that Caitlin Clark is on a minutes restriction, I give the edge to Las Vegas to ultimately prevail.
Score prediction: Aces 96, Fever 90
💰 Fever vs. Aces prediction & best bet
Over 181.5 (-110)
This is an interesting game from a betting perspective because these two teams faced off without their best players last Sunday. In that matchup, Las Vegas closed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 180.5.
I don't really care about the final score, but it's interesting that we've only seen an adjustment of one point in both markets. That could suggest some value. I prefer the total compared to the spread because Las Vegas is 5-1 to the Over in games with no rest since 2024.
I'm expecting an offensive showcase tonight.
🔥 Best Fever vs. Aces player prop bet
Chelsea Gray Over 11.5 points (-125)
Veteran guard Chelsea Gray has been much more effective at home this year for the Aces. She's cleared this scoring line in eight of her 11 home contests this season, averaging 13.1 points on a 19.6% usage rating.
In addition, Gray's offensive role has become more important since Chennedy Carter fell out of the rotation before being ultimately released. Since the calendar flipped to June, Gray has scored at least 12 points in 10 of her 16 outings.
Because I project a high-scoring matchup tonight, I like the idea of backing an underrated veteran guard. This line has climbed to 12.5 at some shops, so take advantage of DraftKings' discount.
🚀 Fever vs. Aces same-game parlay
I've opted to include my two full-unit plays in tonight's Fever vs. Aces parlay, but I'm targeting Las Vegas' moneyline instead of the spread. This ultimately reduced the payout odds to +306 but increased the chances of this SGP reaching the window. At the very least, it means we won't have to sweat free throws at the end of tonight's game.
💵 Fever vs. Aces SGP picks
- Aces ML (-188)
- Over 181.5 (-110)
- Chelsea Gray Over 11.5 points (-130)
Best odds: +306 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.3u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 55-71-1 | +5.40 units ✅ | 5.9% ✅ |
| Player props | 20-14 | +4.42 units ✅ | 13% ✅ |
| Parlays | 3-28 | -1.59 units ❌ | -51.2% ❌ |
📊 Live Fever vs. Aces odds
📺 How to watch Fever vs. Aces
- Date: Sunday, July 12
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena (Las Vegas)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
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