MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Sunday, July 12
Most of tomorrow’s Home Run Derby participants homered recently or shortly after declaring their participation in the event, and I expect Munetaka Murakami to follow suit and get hot before the event as one of my home run predictions today.
I cannot leave fellow Home Run Derby participant Junior Caminero out of my MLB home run picks given how hot he has been at the dish. And to round out my four-pack of plays, I add two other All-Stars, Kazuma Okamoto and James Wood, to get in the spirit of next week’s festivities.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 12
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood to hit a home run (+301 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.75u | Wood is one of three Nationals with 20-plus home runs before the All-Star Break |
| Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+290 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.73u | Caminero set a record for the most home runs (10) in a 10-game span in Rays history recently |
| Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run (+285 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.71u | J.T. Ginn has allowed home runs in three consecutive starts |
| Kazuma Okamoto to hit a home run (+310 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.78u | Okamoto needs one home run to set the record for most by a Japanese-born rookie in a season |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 2.97 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: James Wood (+301)
The Yankees and Nationals conclude a series between the two teams that have hit the most home runs, thus compelling me to back one of the most imposing sluggers on either side.
James Wood entered the weekend batting .421 with six home runs, 13 RBI, and 17 runs in his last 11 games. He faces Will Warren, who allowed a season-high three homers last time out, making four consecutive starts with surrendering one long ball.
Warren may want to cut down usage of his sweeper which he throws nearly 20% of the time, as opponents are slugging .627 against it.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: An historic trio
James Wood, CJ Abrams, and Luis Garcia Jr. are the first trio of Nationals teammates with 20-plus home runs before the All-Star Break.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+290)
Junior Caminero went deep again in the series opener against the Mariners, which meant over the last 17 games he was batting .299 with 13 home runs, 25 RBI, 16 runs, and a 1.269 OPS. He entered the weekend with the most home runs in the Majors since the start of play on June 23.
Caminero faces Emerson Hancock, who has allowed four home runs over 33 innings since the calendar turned to June. Hancock’s 4.34 xERA compared to his actual 3.23 ERA suggests further regression is coming, as do his .488 and .490 xSLGs on his two primary pitches (four-seam fastball and sinker).
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Munetaka Murakami (+285)
Munetaka Murakami is playing his third game since May 29 after dealing with a grade 2 hamstring strain, so his rustiness in going 1-for-5 with four strikeouts since his return is understandable. But it also resembles his “all or nothing” type of season, and doesn’t discourage me from believing he can take a struggling Athletics pitching staff deep.
Entering the weekend, the Athletics had lost seven consecutive games, in large part because of a pitching staff that logged an 8.54 ERA and allowed a .311 OBA and 1.040 opponent’s OPS over that span.
J.T. Ginn should be the latest victim after allowing a home run in three straight starts, and an OPS that’s 251 points higher to left-handed batters than righties.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+310)
Kazuma Okamoto swings for history today, as a 23rd home run would be the most by a Japanese-born rookie in MLB history (he is currently tied with Shohei Ohtani at 22).
Okamoto entered the weekend with nine home runs in his last 24 games, while homering in the same series three times in that span. He looks to add the Padres as a fourth such opponent in that span after his 377-foot blast on Friday.
German Marquez has not enjoyed the statistical improvements he hoped for when leaving the Rockies, as this year’s 1.9 HR/rate is on pace to be worse than all but one of his first 10 seasons in Coors Field. His career-worst 34.7% fly ball rate hasn’t helped matters.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- James Wood to hit a home run (+301)
- Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+268)
- Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run (+283)
- Kazuma Okamoto to hit a home run (+310)
Best odds: +23073 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 23.1u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 183-274-1 | +49.97 units ✅ | +17.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 109-223 | +33.33 units ✅ | +20.2% ✅ |
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