US Open Odds & Best Bets 2023: Top Picks, Predictions for Men & Women

Breaking down our US Open best bets and top picks ahead of the 2023 tournament.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 28, 2023 10:34 AM EDT • 7 minute read

The final Grand Slam of the tennis campaign is underway, and our US Open best bets look to help you turn a profit as Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek again enter as consensus favorites across our best sports betting apps.

Carlos Alcaraz made it three consecutive years in 2022 when a first-time Grand Slam men’s champion was crowned at the US Open. Still, some skeptics will say the door was opened much wider for him because Novak Djokovic was ineligible to participate because of his vaccination status.

Even when the “Big Three” of Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal dominated men’s tennis from the mid-2000s onward, the US Open was always considered the most wide-open of the four Grand Slams. Since 2009, six different men have claimed their first Grand Slam title at the US Open, with four (Juan Martin del Potro in 2009, Marin Cilic in 2014, Dominic Thiem in 2020, and Daniil Medvedev in 2021) recording their only major title at Flushing Meadows.

Meanwhile, the Women’s draw at the US Open in 2022 featured plenty of upsets and surprises. But in the end, the top two women in the race to the WTA Finals at the time competed for the final, with No. 1 Iga Swiatek and No. 2 Ons Jabeur squaring off.

There have been seven different winners over eight tournaments since Serena Williams three-peated at the US Open from 2012 to 2014, with the only repeat triumph during that span coming from Naomi Osaka (who won in 2018 and 2020). The US Open has also crowned four first-time Grand Slam winners during that stretch (Flavia Pennetta in 2015, Sloane Stephens in 2017, Bianca Andreescu in 2019, and Emma Raducanu in 2021).

Here are our US Open best bets (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

US Open best bets

Men’s winner: Daniil Medvedev (+1000 via DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Women’s winner: Aryna Sabalenka (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Jannik Sinner to win first quarter (+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Women’s draw - Any American player to win the tournament: YES (+330 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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US Open pick: Men’s winner

Daniil Medvedev (+1000 via DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

With most expecting a men’s final between Djokovic and Alcaraz, neither of their pre-tournament odds offer much value (both are +190 or shorter). And Medvedev is a great value pick to crash the Djokovic-Alcaraz party given how often there have been surprise winners on the men’s side recently.

Hard court is easily Medvedev’s best surface, as his 82% win rate at the US Open and 75% winning percentage at the Australian Open are his highest two at any major. Medvedev’s four Grand Slam finals appearances have come on hard courts, and he's won four hard court titles in 2023 at Miami, Rotterdam, Qatar, and Dubai. His odds would skyrocket if he were to avoid Alcaraz in the semifinals, and Medvedev wouldn't fear facing Djokovic. He's recorded five head-to-head wins against Djokovic and is one of the only players to beat him in straight sets during a five-set match (at the 2021 US Open final).

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This three-star play would become a more confident four-star wager if we could guarantee the weather at Flushing Meadows will be as mild in the second week of the tournament as it's forecasted to be during the first (no weekday then is projected to reach 80 degrees). Slower court conditions would favor Medvevev’s calculating game.

bet365 features lower +900 odds for Medvedev to win outright, so the best value lies with any of the other three shops.

US Open pick: Women’s winner

Aryna Sabalenka (+475 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka has made consecutive US Open semifinals in 2020 and 2021, and she's 25-5 on hard courts with two titles during 2023. Additionally, her 15-5 career US Open record is tied with Sabalenka's Australian Open record as her best two winning percentages out of the four majors. Sabalenka currently leads the 2023 WTA singles race instead of world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. That's due to her consistency after winning an Australian Open title and singles titles in Brisbane and Madrid.

Sabalenka may have notched just one Grand Slam title (the 2023 Australian Open). But she's made the semifinals or better during each of the last four majors, and we're backing her at +500 to win it all (she's as low as +400 through bet365) due to her power on hard courts.

This wager is in line with DraftKings's confidence that there will be a first-time winner, as the odds for “yes” on that prop are -280, while “no” is +200.

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US Open pick: Jannik Sinner to win first quarter

(+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Jannik Sinner was the favorite in his quarter at Wimbledon this year, and he cashed those tickets for bettors before ultimately succumbing to Djokovic in straight sets during the semifinals. Since then, Sinner won the Masters event in Toronto while beating an impressive lineup of players in Matteo Berrettini, Gael Monfils, Tommy Paul, and Alex de Minaur.

Sinner is on track to meet Alcaraz in the quarterfinals for the second straight year. It will be interesting to see how much is left in Alcaraz's tank after a grueling three-set loss to Djokovic in Cincinnati that lasted nearly four hours.

The two played a five-hour-and-15-minute five-set classic during the 2022 quarterfinals, making it the latest-ending match in US Open history. Sinner put Alcaraz on the ropes, with the Spaniard saving a match point in the fourth set. So Sinner will be confident during a rematch, which makes his +350 odds to reach the semifinals enticing (BetMGM is lower at +333).

Furthermore, DraftKings is tipping its hand that Sinner might possess the edge if the two were to meet, as Alcaraz’s “stage of elimination” odds in the quarterfinals are +330, a shade behind his odds to finish runner-up at +200. In addition, the “name the finalists” prop at bet365 features the Sinner-Djokovic combination (+1200) as the third-shortest.

US Open pick: Any American woman to win the tournament

Yes (+330 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

For the first time since 2004, five American men are seeded at the US Open. However, we believe the ceilings of the American women are higher, and this prop found exclusively at DraftKings serves as an excellent hedge for our Sabalenka outright winner tickets.

Cori Gauff and Jessica Pegula are the most likely American women to win this major, and the two are fixtures in the top five on the oddsboards at our best sportsbooks. Gauff became the first teenager to win five WTA titles since Caroline Wozniacki accomplished the feat in 2008-09, according to OptaAce. She's been enjoying tremendous success on hard courts in 2023, winning titles in Washington D.C. and Cincinnati while overcoming the obstacle that is Iga Swiatek during the latter tournament (she had been 0-7 against the world No. 1).

Meanwhile, Pegula is looking to build on her 2022 run to the quarterfinals while trying to make a first-ever major semifinal. The pressure on Pegula would ratchet up if she were to reach the quarterfinals since she's 0-6 across her previous six Grand Slam appearances at that stage. But if she breaks through to the semifinals, we could envision that monkey coming off her back propelling Pegula to her first major title.

US Open best bets made 8/26/2023 at 11:24 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”