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Verizon 200 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Reddick Favored to Repeat at IMS Road Course

Henry John

Last Updated: August 13, 2023 1:21 PM EDT • 4 min 6 sec read.

From an assessment of the outright odds to some very enticing prop bets, our Verizon 200 picks and predictions have plenty to offer for Sunday’s NASCAR race at The Brickyard. Here are the Verizon 200 odds and our NASCAR picks.

Now, we are fully aware that running on the IMS road course takes some luster off of NASCAR racing at “The Brickyard.” However, a return to the oval appears to be imminent next season. My fingers are crossed over here for sure. Until then, fans will get to enjoy a race that features a number of road course ringers from across the globe mixed in with the Cup Series regulars. 

Tyler Reddick put a whupping on the field to win last year’s Verizon 200. After nabbing a front-row spot in qualifying, it’s only fitting that he is the betting favorite to return to victory lane.

Surrounding Reddick up front on the starting grid are several drivers in desperate need of a win to lock themselves into the playoffs. Of course, a smooch of the bricks also awaits the winner.

Here are our best bets and 2023 Verizon 200 picks for Sunday’s action at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Verizon 200 picks

  • Outright winner: Tyler Reddick (+350 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
  • Driver matchup: A.J. Allmendinger (+150 via SuperBook) vs. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐⭐
  • Top 5 finish: Chase Elliott (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

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Verizon 200 odds

DriverDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Tyler Reddick+330+350+350+325 ❄️+350
Chase Elliott+550 ❄️+600+600+650 🔥+600
Daniel Suarez+650+550 ❄️+700 🔥+600+650
Martin Truex Jr.+800+700 ❄️+800+750+750
Shane van Gisbergen+850+900+1200 🔥+800 ❄️+1000
Kyle Larson+1100 🔥+1000+800 ❄️+1000+900
Kyle Busch+1100+1200+1000 ❄️+1100+1200
Christopher Bell+1100+1000+1200 🔥+1000+1000
Michael McDowell+1600+1800 🔥+1200+1200+1600
A.J. Allmendinger+2500+2500+2200 ❄️+2500+2500

Verizon 200 predictions

Outright winner: Tyler Reddick (+350 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

Picking the favorite is somewhat boring, but it’s impossible to ignore what Reddick did here last year in addition to his performances at other technical road courses. Since the advent of the Next Gen Car, he has clearly been the man to beat at road courses. 

Along with winning the 2022 Verizon 200, Reddick triumphed at Road America last summer and at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season. In 17 total road races dating back through the 2020 season, he has totaled three victories, five top-5s and 10 top-10s. His average driver rating of 94.8 over that sample size ranks third among active competitors. 

Speaking of average driver rating, Reddick was so dominant at Indy last year that he leads all Cup Series drivers with a 110.7 rating averaged out across the two previous races here. To put that impressive mark into further perspective, recall that he only finished 21st in the inaugural IMS Road Course race two years ago.

Any concerns about Reddick’s ability to replicate last year’s triumph in his new ride with 23XI Racing were put to bed when he won outright at COTA in the spring. With a front-row starting spot also factored in, the No. 45 car will surely be a tough out. FanDuel is one of the sportsbooks listing optimal +350 odds on Reddick to win outright.

Driver matchup: A.J. Allmendinger (+150 via SuperBook) vs. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐⭐

A plus-money return on A.J. Allmendinger in a driver matchup at a road course was once thought to be nothing more than a fantasy. Well, after a poor qualifying session, “The Dinger” will be relegated to lining up 26th on the Verizon 200 starting grid. Despite the poor starting spot, we are backing him as a +150 underdog in a matchup against Christopher Bell. 

By no means is this a bet against Bell, who also owns a pair of recent road course victories against NASCAR Cup Series competition. This is simply a reaction to what seems to be an over-adjustment by oddsmakers solely based on Allmendinger’s poor qualifying run.

Allmendinger won the inaugural edition of this very race two years ago and finished seventh last year. Despite only running a partial Cup Series schedule prior to this season, he has still managed to accumulate four top-5s and eight top-10s in just 13 road course starts dating back through the 2020 season.

Although a fade of Bell isn’t the crux of this handicap, it should be noted that he has finished 12th and 36th in the two previous road races at IMS. Allmendinger may be starting a full 19 spots behind Bell on Sunday, but few are more capable of making up that deficit on track. The added urgency of his current standing in the playoff cutline battle only supports our pick.

Top 5 finish: Chase Elliott (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Chase Elliott is another driver who is in the thick of the playoff hunt with only three regular-season races remaining. The situation is pretty simple for the No. 9 team after crashing out at Michigan last week: They must win a race to make the 16-team playoff. Given his prowess on road courses in the past, that needed win could very well transpire this weekend at Indy.

Spanning all road races since the start of the 2020 season, Elliott’s stats are second to none in the Cup Series. He has amassed four outright wins and a whopping 11 top-5 results in 16 starts. His average finish of 6.5 and his driver rating of 115.1 are light years ahead of all other drivers over that extended span.

Elliott missed this spring’s race at COTA as part of his injury-related absence. However, he is clearly still a capable road racer, evidenced by a fifth-place finish at Sonoma and a third-place showing in Chicago.

What’s more, Elliott already took a big step towards another top-5 finish by posting the third-fastest qualifying time on Saturday. With track position in his favor from the onset, one could argue that a top-5 wager may be a bit conservative. However, thanks to the fact that bet365 is offering the prop at +100 odds, it is still a profitable play.

Verizon 200 info

  • Date: Sunday, Aug. 13, 2:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, Indianapolis, IN
  • TV: NBC
  • Defending Winner: Tyler Reddick

Verizon 200 picks made 08/12/23 at 9 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.