Mercury vs. Sky Prediction, Expert Picks & WNBA Odds: Phoenix Favored in Olympic Return

The WNBA returns from its Olympic hiatus with a compelling matchup between two teams still fighting for a playoff spot.
Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese (5) brings the ball up as we offer our best Mercury vs. Sky prediction and expert picks for Thursday's WNBA matchup at Wintrust Arena in Chicago.
Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese (5) brings the ball up court against the New York Liberty at Wintrust Arena. Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski / USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.
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After nearly a month off for the Paris 2024 Olympics, the WNBA is back in full force Thursday with three games as we offer our Mercury vs. Sky prediction and expert picks for the matchup at Wintrust Arena in Chicago.

Phoenix is favored by as many as 3.5 points over Chicago across our best sports betting sites for Thursday's contest, which tips off at 8 p.m. ET. Neither team is among the favorites by the latest WNBA championship odds, though we like the underdogs to surprise in this matchup with a more rested roster at home.

Mercury vs. Sky expert picks

WNBA picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

Rested Sky should hold serve at home vs. Mercury

Sky +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The age-old debate of rest vs. rust applies in this matchup, as both teams have enjoyed more than three weeks off ... though it doesn't apply equally across the board.

Chicago's roster should be mostly fresh after the Olympic break, but the Mercury's three best players - Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi, and Kahleah Copper - all represented Team USA in a long and emotionally taxing run through the Paris 2024 tournament to win gold.

That sort of mental and physical toll overseas matters when the return comes against a young and physical Sky team led by Angel Reese, who should be chomping at the bit to continue what has been a stellar rookie campaign so far.

Not only is FanDuel offering the best line at +3.5, but these -106 odds are even better than at most of our best sportsbooks at a worse number. That sounds like a strong value to me to open Thursday's slate.

Best odds: -106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.46%

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Kahleah Copper Over 24.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

While Griner and Taurasi have more household recognition, Copper was key for the Americans to secure gold in Paris. And she's quietly been the best scorer on this team all season long.

The four-time All-Star averaged 23.2 points through her first 25 games, clearing this total in four of six games before the Olympic break, and I strongly suspect she'll be the featured focus offensively in her first game back for Phoenix.

Best odds: +100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50%

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Angel Reese Over 12.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐

It's been almost a month since Reese rebounded the basketball in an official capacity. You don't think she'll be attacking the boards with reckless abandon on Thursday?

The rookie forward was averaging 11.9 rebounds before the break, though she's grabbed at least 10 boards in 18 consecutive games. She averaged 13.2 rebounds in that stretch while clearing this total 11 times in those 18 games (61.1%).

Against a smaller Mercury lineup that ranks dead last in rebound rate (47.6%), expect Reese to get back to her usual dominant ways on the glass.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Mercury vs. Sky odds

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars bet365
Mercury -3 (-110) -3.5 (-114) -2.5 (-120) -3 (-105) -3 (-110)
Sky +3 (-110) +3.5 (-106) +2.5 (+100) +3 (-115) +3 (-110)

Mercury vs. Sky game info

  • When: Thursday, Aug. 15
  • Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Wintrust Arena (Chicago)
  • How to watch: Marquee Sports Network (Chicago), AZFamily
  • Favorite: Mercury -3 (-110 via bet365)

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Mercury-Sky predictions made Wednesday at 5:15 p.m. ET.

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