Belgian GP Picks, Predictions & Odds 2023: Can Verstappen Overcome Penalty?

When it comes to betting on Sunday’s Formula 1 race, there are plenty of options to choose from for your Belgian GP picks. Get the lowdown on some of our favorites with our F1 predictions based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

Next up on the Formula 1 racing calendar is the 79th annual running of the Belgian Grand Prix. The Circuit of Spa-Francorchamps has gained a reputation for having unpredictable weather over the years, but the track is set to host the stars of F1 again this weekend.

Defending series champion Max Verstappen is the two-time defending winner of the Belgian GP. He also enters the weekend on a seven-race winning streak and a massive lead in the F1 Championship odds race. Verstappen will be seeking his 10th win of the season overall. 

Although the Red Bull Racing star did qualify faster than any other driver, he won’t be starting from the pole on Sunday. Verstappen was assessed a gearbox penalty that will drop him five spots on the starting grid. Even with Charles Leclerc inheriting the pole, Verstappen is still a massive odds-on favorite to win the race.

Here are our best bets and 2023 Belgian GP picks for Sunday’s race at the Circuit of Spa–Francorchamps (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Belgian GP picks

• Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-380 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Top 6 finish parlay: Max Verstappen (-800), Lando Norris (-300), Oscar Piastri (-270) = +121 via FanDuel ⭐⭐
• Double podium finish: Red Bull Racing (-190 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Belgian GP odds

Belgian GP predictions

Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-380 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Apologies to anyone who was hoping for an upset winner prediction this week. Verstappen may have been relegated to lining up sixth on the starting grid, but it figures to take something far more catastrophic to capsize the run he has been on of late.

Verstappen has gone to victory lane in each of the last seven races and nine times out of 11 total races run this year. He has 281 points, separating him from Red Bull Racing teammate Sergio Perez by over 100 points in the F1 driver standings. 

Speaking of Perez, it’s fair to consider whether or not he could be a factor on Sunday. After several weeks of horrendous qualifying runs, Perez managed to crack the top three. With Verstappen’s penalty, he is now set to line up second on the starting grid. 

Perez may drive for the same team, but the gap between the two drivers has been massive in recent weeks. He finished third in last week’s Hungarian GP but was still over 37 seconds behind Verstappen at the line. Bettors should also keep in mind that Verstappen won the Belgian GP last year despite starting 14th. Perez started and finished the race second.

At this point, Verstappen bettors are no doubt accustomed to laying hefty juice with our best sports betting sites. Even with the starting grid penalty, it will likely be a price well laid again this week. FanDuel’s -380 odds represent the only price north of -400 in the betting market.

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Top 6 finish parlay: Max Verstappen (-800), Lando Norris (-300), Oscar Piastri (-270) = +121 via FanDuel ⭐⭐⭐

Aside from Verstappen, the McLaren duo of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri has been one of the hottest things going in Formula 1 the past few weeks. Well, with this three-leg top-6 finish parlay, we are putting our money on all three of these drivers and netting a plus-money price as the potential return.

We already stated our case for why Verstappen is worth backing to win the race outright above. In order to not finish in the top-6, he would have to lose a spot relative to where he is starting on the grid. Such an occurrence is practically unfathomable. With this in mind, we now turn our focus to the McLaren teammates.

Norris comes into the Belgian GP off of two of his best runs of the entire season to date. He followed up a fourth-place run in Austria with two straight runner-up finishes to Verstappen in Britain and Hungary. Norris will be starting seventh on Sunday’s grid, but the speed he has shown in recent weeks lends one to believe that he is capable of cracking the top six. 

As for Piastri, he too has been having stellar runs of late. Two weeks ago, he achieved his best result of the season by finishing fourth in Britain. Any expected drop-off failed to materialize in Hungary as Piastri placed fifth. He will start fifth on Sunday’s grid in Belgium and, if the last two weeks are any indication, should have the speed to hold ground for a top-six result.

Double podium finish: Red Bull Racing (-190 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

All season long, Red Bull Racing has been head and shoulders above the rest of Formula 1. In two of the last three weeks, Verstappen and Perez have comprised 2/3 of the podium. This is despite the fact that Perez has had horrendous qualifying runs for weeks on end recently.

Looking ahead to Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix, both Red Bull Racing drivers will start the race with terrific track position. Even with Verstappen’s grid penalty, his dominant speed should enable him to ascend back into the top three with ease. 

With Perez starting second, he can afford to be passed by his teammate and still finish on the podium. One would like to think that a Red Bull Racing ride will be capable of at least maintaining positions ahead of the rest of the field. 

When it comes to the odds on this prop bet, DraftKings’ version is the most profitable. The team double podium finish price of -190 still requires bettors to lay some vig, but it is far less than combining the two drivers into a podium finish parlay at our other best sportsbooks. One would have to lay over $2 to do so.

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Belgian GP Race Info

• Date: Sunday, July 30, 9 a.m. ET
• Location: Circuit of Spa-Francorchamps, Stavelot, Belgium
• TV: ESPN
• Defending winner: Max Verstappen

Belgian GP picks made 07/29/23 at 3:30 p.m. ET

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