Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev Prediction & Odds: 2024 French Open Final

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 9, 2024 9:23 AM EDT • 2 min 59 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Carlos Alcaraz of Spain celebrates winning his match as we look at our Alcaraz vs. Zverev prediction for the French Open final — Carlos Alcaraz of Spain celebrates winning his match against Jannik Sinner of Italy on day 13 of Roland Garros at Stade Roland Garros. Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports.

Either Carlos Alcaraz or Alexander Zverev will win their first French Open title on Sunday, and we offer our best Alcaraz vs. Zverev prediction for the French Open Men’s Final based on the odds from our best sports betting sites.

With his semifinal victory over soon-to-be World No. 1 Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz became the youngest male player to reach a Grand Slam final on all three surfaces—hardcourt, grass, and clay. He is also the first man in the Open Era to achieve this milestone before turning 22.

Additionally, Alcaraz is the second-youngest man since 2000 to reach the Roland Garros final, with only 14-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal having done so at a younger age.

Meanwhile, Alexander Zverev secured his place in the final with a four-set semifinal win over Casper Ruud, marking his 11th straight victory this season. Zverev is the second German player in the Open Era to reach the Men’s final at Roland Garros and, according to OptaAce, only the fifth player to reach the Men’s Singles final at both the Internazionali d’Italia and Roland Garros in the same calendar year.

Alcaraz vs. Zverev odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

	Alcaraz	Zverev
Moneyline	-285	+225
Spread	-4.5 (-110)	+4.5 (-110)
Over/Under	Over 38.5 (-115)	Under 38.5 (-105)

Alcaraz vs. Zverev prediction

Zverev +4.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Entering his semifinal match against Ruud, Zverev had already been on the court for more than 10 hours. However, whatever advantage that would have given Alcaraz as the fresher player was mitigated by his 4-hour, 10-minute five-set marathon against Sinner.

In addition, Alcaraz and Sinner combined for 100-plus forehands over speeds of 90 mph, and that will likely take punishment on Alcaraz’s body just as much as the length of time he was on the court.

While Alcaraz is 2-0 in his previous Grand Slam finals (2022 US Open, 2023 Wimbledon), and is now only the fifth player in the Open Era to win 10 of his first 11 five-setters in majors (per Tennis Abstract’s Jeff Sackmann), we are looking at that record as a reason to back Zverev, as the Spaniard seems to have a knack for going the distance against top players.

If you want an idea of how well Zverev served in his semifinal match, Ruud had 27 break-point chances against one of the best servers in the game in Taylor Fritz in the fourth round, but had just three such chances against Zverev (he converted two). Zverev also served a tournament-high 19 aces and won a tournament-best 86% of his first-serve points against Ruud.

If he continues to serve that way against Alcaraz, any set he may lose would likely come in a tiebreak, which does not hurt us when backing a spread as high as 4.5 games.

Best odds: -106 via FanDuel

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French Open final best odds

FanDuel (-106)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Zverev +4.5 games (-110)	Zverev +4.5 games (-106)	Zverev +4.5 games (-115)	Zverev +4.5 games (-115)	Zverev +4.5 games (-110)

FanDuel is our sportsbook of choice for this wager, as it is the only shop charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the underdog on the game spread.

Those who are willing to back Zverev’s moneyline odds (the best odds are the +240 at bet365) believe that the German will break a curse of sorts, as the first two men to beat Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros also lost in the final that same year.

Zverev’s game spread record in 2024 is 22-15-6, while Alcaraz has covered in 14 of his 27 matches overall (14-9-4).

Alcaraz vs. Zverev H2H stats

Alcaraz	Stat	Zverev
4	Matches won	5
4	Wins in straight sets	2
12	Sets won	12
119	Games won	109
2	Wins on clay	1

French Open final match info

When: Saturday, June 8 (9 a.m. ET)
Where: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Paris
How to watch: NBC
Favorite: Alcaraz (-285 via DraftKings)

Alcaraz-Zverev pick made Friday at 11:03 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”