Free Breeders' Cup Picks & Predictions 2024: Favorite, Long Shot & Fade for Del Mar
Over 170 horses from five continents will be represented at the 41st annual Breeders' Cup at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in San Diego, Calif. this weekend.
The action begins with "Future Stars Friday," which will be anchored by the Breeders' Cup Juvenile for 2025 Kentucky Derby hopefuls. I'm looking at the Saturday, Nov. 2 program for my best bets and wagering advice for the American thoroughbred championships.
My free Breeders' Cup picks have plenty to say about the Classic, in which a turf runner in City of Troy figures to go off as the betting favorite by the Breeders' Cup odds for this 1 1/4-mile dirt event.
I'll also look at the Distaff and the Turf to try and extract the best betting value possible.
Breeders' Cup Classic odds 2024
Breeders Cup odds via FanDuel Racing as of Thursday.
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forever Young | Yoshito Yahagi | 6-1 |
| 2 | Highland Falls | Brad Cox | 20-1 |
| 3 | City of Troy | Aiden O'Brien | 5-2 |
| 4 | Mixto | Doug O'Neill | 30-1 |
| 5 | Senor Buscador | Todd Fincher | 30-1 |
| 6 | Derma Sotogake | Hidetaka Otonashi | 20-1 |
| 7 | Ushba Tesoro | Noboru Takagi | 12-1 |
| 8 | Pyrenees | Cherie DeVaux | 30-1 |
| 9 | Fierceness | Todd Pletcher | 3-1 |
| 10 | Tapit Trice | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 11 | Sierra Leone | Chad Brown | 12-1 |
| 12 | Arthur's Ride | Bill Mott | 15-1 |
| 13 | Newgate | Bob Baffert | 20-1 |
| 14 | Next | William Cowans | 8-1 |
| 15 | Rattle N Roll | Ken McPeek | 30-1 |
*FanDuel Racing odds available in AZ, CO, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY.
Breeders' Cup Classic picks and predictions
My Breeders' Cup Classic favorite: Forever Young, Post 1
Odds: +600 | Implied probability: 14.3%
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Japan has enjoyed success in the Breeders' Cup before, but never in the Classic. They've also never notched a victory in one of the American Triple Crown races, but they came awfully close in this year's Kentucky Derby with Forever Young, who is back stateside for the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Forever Young exchanged bumps with Sierra Leone while rallying late in the Derby, settling for third while Mystik Dan held off both horses thanks to a rail-skimming ride. The son of Real Steel hit the sidelines until October 2, coming back with his sixth win in seven lifetime starts in the Japan Dirt Classic.
Forever Young has shown resilience to compile his impressive lifetime record that includes two graded stakes triumphs, so I'm not all that concerned about his rail draw.
Look for him to close into a solid pace on Saturday.
My Breeders' Cup Classic long shot: Highland Falls, Post 2
Odds: +2000 | Implied probability: 4.8%
Highland Falls began his career by posting three wins from four starts before jumping up to stakes company in the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap. He checked in fourth in his first attempt at the 1 1/4-mile trip, but that did not deter trainer Brad Cox.
The son of Curlin was kept busy after that cross-country trek, taking second in the Grade II Oaklawn Handicap, first in the Grade III Blame Stakes, and second in the Grade III Monmouth Cup, all at 1 1/8-miles.
Highland Falls tried 1 1/4 miles again in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup when last seen, and it all came together for him at Saratoga that day as he crushed the field by four lengths. A repeat of that effort could be good enough for at least a share in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
My Breeders' Cup Classic fade: City of Troy, Post 3
Odds: +250 | Implied probability: 28.6%
An oft-quoted tenet of horse racing is to "never take a short price on a horse trying something new."
Betting on City of Troy would fly in the face of that maxim, as he figures to go off as the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Classic despite having never competed on dirt.
His sire is 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, but turf pedigree runs deep on his damside being by a Galileo mare. For what it's worth, Galileo - also trained by City of Troy conditioner Aiden O'Brien - ran sixth in the 2001 Breeders' Cup Classic.
O'Brien's Classic history is a checkered one despite all kinds of success in the various turf races at the American thoroughbred championships, as only three of his 17 Classic runners have even hit the board.
Breeders' Cup Distaff pick
My Breeders' Cup Distaff favorite: Thorpedo Anna, Post 2
Odds: -125 | Implied probability: 55.6%
You could try to beat the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, but there's no value in a losing ticket.
Thorpedo Anna dominated the three-year-old fillies division this year, so much so that she faced the boys instead in the Grade I Travers Stakes since she had nothing left to prove. Her effort there in defeat was arguably better than any of her wins in 2024, as she nearly nipped Fierceness on the wire that day.
I'm not reading too much into her step backward in the Grade I Cotillion when last seen, as it's possible she bounced a bit off the Travers and/or did not care for the surface at Parx. Still, a win is a win, and that race was merely a prep for this one.
I still think there's a chance for a decent payday in this race, as I'll be using 30-1 long shot Honor D Lady underneath in an exacta play.
I'm not sure why she misfired in the Grade I Spinster when last seen, but Honor D Lady drilled a bullet workout afterwards, so it seems like it's all systems go for her now. The three-time stakes victress was a runaway winner of the Grade II Delaware Handicap two-back and a courageous second in the Lady's Secret Stakes prior to that after botching the break.
Breeders' Cup Turf pick
My Breeders' Cup Turf favorite: Jayarebe, Post 5
Odds: +400 | Implied probability: 20%
Jayarebe has yet to win a Grade/Group I event and also has yet to compete at 1 1/2-miles, but he gives every indication that he'll be able to pass the test in the Breeders' Cup Turf.
He showed tenaciousness in the stretch in each of his last two victories, and he lost nothing in defeat to Economics two-back. That runner went on to beat 2023 Breeders' Cup Turf winner August Rodin in the Group I Irish Champions Stakes next time out.
Breeders' Cup info
- Date: November 1 & 2, 2024
- Location: Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, San Diego, Calif.
- How to watch: FanDuel TV, USA, NBC
- Purse: $7 million (Classic)
What to know for betting the Breeders' Cup
The Breeders' Cup consists of 14 thoroughbred championship races for various divisions of horse racing. The Breeders' Cup Classic — contested at 1 1/4-miles on dirt — is the most prestigious (and most lucrative with a purse of $7 million) of the 14 races and is open to three-year-olds and upward regardless of sex. Several races, like the Breeders' Cup Distaff, are restricted to female horses (fillies and mares), and there are others where only two-year-olds can run, like the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The races will be held on either dirt or turf and at varying distances.
Del Mar Thoroughbred Club is the host track for the Breeders' Cup this year as the San Diego oval will hold "Future Stars Friday" and "Championship Saturday." The Breeders' Cup portion of the Friday program consists of all two-year-old races over both turf and dirt. The winners of the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies will likely be stamped as the horses to beat on the 2025 Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks trails.
Championship Saturday is anchored by the Classic, which sits directly in the middle of the Breeders' Cup action on November 2.
The Breeders' Cup offers all sorts of multi-day and multi-race wagers requiring the bettor to pick the winners of multiple events, but these are what parlays are to sports betting — high-risk and high-reward. Whether you're a novice or a seasoned horse-betting pro, you're better off sticking to simpler wagers like win, place, show, exacta, and trifecta. These wagers will pay off at least decently due to the large field sizes in just about every Breeders' Cup race.
Read our full guide for more information on how to bet on horse racing.
Breeders' Cup betting strategies
When handicapping the Classic, look past the average win payout of $23.50, which - according to the Breeders’ Cup - is the third-highest among the 14 races. It’s a false flag, courtesy of the greatest upset in Breeders' Cup history - Arcangues’ 1993 victory at Santa Anita that paid an eye-watering $269.20 for a $2 wager.
Favorites have won four times in the last 10 years: White Abarrio last year, Flightline in 2022, Accelerate in 2018, and American Pharaoh in 2015. They’ve prevailed seven times in the last 20 Classics - right at the 35% you'd expect for betting favorites in horse racing. Fluke occurrences like Arcangues aside, the Classic isn’t kind to long shots or dreamers.
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