Yankees vs. Red Sox Picks, Predictions & Odds: Familiarity Breeds Contempt

Check out our best Yankees-Red Sox picks for Friday's matchup based on the top MLB odds.

Last Updated: June 16, 2023 4:24 PM EDT • 4 minute read

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox renew their rivalry, and a matchup from just a week ago, when they meet up again at Fenway Park. Read on for our Yankees-Red Sox pick based on the top MLB odds from our best MLB betting sites.

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees open up another three-game series Friday, and now the heated rivals will play six times over a nine-day span.

Friday's pitching matchup is a rematch from last Saturday's affair between the Yanks' Domingo German and Boston's Tanner Houck. German took the win in a 3-1 victory, and home runs from Gleyber Torres and Willie Calhoun supported him.

Will a second head-to-head matchup in such a short span lead to more offense?

Here is our best Yankees-Red Sox pick (odds via DraftKings; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). We're also targeting a Houck prop in our MLB Best Bets for Friday.

Yankees vs. Red Sox pick

Over 17.5 hits (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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German limited the Red Sox to one earned run on six hits over six innings during the victory last weekend. Houck also went six innings while giving up two earned runs on only three hits.

We don't expect another pitcher's duel during the rematch. Our best sports betting sites aren't anticipating a repeat performance either. The total opened at 9.5 runs and has reached 10 at such sportsbooks as FanDuel and BetMGM.

But with the Yankees struggling to score since slugger Aaron Judge landed on the IL with a toe injury, we'll look to the total hits market to capitalize on the expectation of more balls being put in play.

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The O/U on total hits is set at 17.5 through DraftKings and bet365. A combined 13 hits were scratched out during Saturday's game with German and Houck on the mound.

The total for hits per team is set at 8.5 through bet365, with juice on the Over for both clubs. The expectation from the books is that the Yankees and Red Sox will each cash the Over on their hit total, which gives us confidence in paying up for the combined total line of 17.5.

German's WHIP is significantly worse during his six road starts (1.17) than his six home appearances (0.84). He's averaging 1.3 hits per inning away from Yankee Stadium. German has also posted a 1.032 WHIP across seven career outings at Fenway Park.

Meanwhile, Houck has been knocked around quite a bit in 2023. His WHIP sits at 1.26 for the season, and it's actually worse at home (1.41) than on the road (1.11).

The Red Sox righty hasn't recorded a win since April 20, and he's given up at least five hits in seven of his last nine starts. He's averaging 5 2/3 innings per start, leaving a lot of work for the Boston bullpen.

BallPark Pal is projecting 5.7 hits against German and 5.5 off of Houck, two of the highest totals for Friday's starting pitchers.

With some familiarity between the batters and pitchers from the game just six days ago, expect better at-bats in a ballpark that's been home to the second-most hits in 2023, according to Baseball Savant's park factors.

Yankees vs. Red Sox best odds

DraftKings (-130)

DraftKings	bet365
Over 17.5	Over 17.5
-130	-135

This total hits prop isn't available at all sportsbooks. There's minimal price difference between the odds at DraftKings and bet365, but the former saves bettors a few more cents.

Yankees vs. Red Sox odds

Check out our World Series odds.

Yankees vs. Red Sox odds analysis

The Yankees opened as -105 favorites on the moneyline, but the Red Sox are now favored at -130 odds. New York is receiving 67% of the moneyline wagers.

The Over on 9.5 is the favored side for the total, as it's been receiving 55% of the betting action.

Yankees vs. Red Sox game info

Date: Friday, June 16, 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: NESN, YES, MLB Network
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Weather: 76 degrees, cloudy, 29% chance of precipitation

Yankees-Red Sox pick made 6/16/2023 at 3:03 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Michael McClymont

Michael McClymont is a Publishing Editor for Sportsbook Review, providing coverage on NFL and college football. Prior to joining SBR, he covered football as an NFL editor at theScore. Mike has more than 15 years of experience in the journalism industry as a writer and editor. Mike enjoys a good futures bet and to hammer live in-game odds. While his favorite bet was Julian Edelman Super Bowl LIII MVP at +4000, his biggest regret was cashing out a Lamar Jackson 2019 MVP bet in Week 8, a week before he cemented the award with his highlight-reel rushing TD against the Bengals.