Yankees vs. Rays Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 7)

RHP Will Warren and LHP Ian Seymour square off today in the second game of a four-game set as we break down the Yankees vs. Rays win probability.

The Rays have a 53% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be higher with Aaron Judge still out of the lineup. First pitch from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (TBS, MLB.TV).

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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Rays? Live MLB win probability

The Rays have a projected 53% win probability, and over $150,000 in volume has already cleared in this market. Tampa Bay originally opened with a 53% win probability on Sunday night, so while liquidity has increased, we haven't seen any significant movement. Yes contracts on the Rays are available at 54¢, with over $350,000 in liquidity at that price.

The Yankees have won two of their last four games after beating the Rays 5-1 in Monday's series opener. While going 2-2 over four games isn't an impressive stretch for one of the favorites to win the World Series, the Yankees have struggled without Judge, losing nine of their previous 10 games entering Monday.

Shortstop Jose Caballero drove in four of the Yankees' five runs in the series opener.

Caballero homered twice in the win, hitting a three-run blast in the fifth inning and adding a solo shot in the eighth. Meanwhile, Rays second baseman Richie Palacios drove in Tampa Bay's lone run with an RBI single in the fifth. The Rays have lost three straight after a nine-game win streak from June 24 to July 3.

My prediction: Rays win (54¢). The Rays haven't lost four in a row since a four-game skid from May 24-27. The Yankees, on the other hand, haven't won back-to-back games since June 23-24 against the Tigers. Don't overreact to a big night from Caballero - the Yankees struggle to win without Judge, and Seymour has allowed a total of just one run over his last two starts.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Yankees vs. Rays?

Over $4,000 in volume has been traded in this market, with a projected 49% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 49¢, you can instantly get more than $26,000 filled.

The Yankees have had a first-inning run scored in 54% of their games, while the Rays have seen a run scored in the first inning in 51% of theirs. Warren and Seymour have each not allowed a first-inning run in four of their last five starts.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (52¢). Warren and Seymour have both been solid early in recent starts, and this Yankees offense is batting just .161 over the last three games, the second-worst average in MLB. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Yankees vs. Rays win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Rays

• Date: Tuesday, July 7
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
• TV: TBS
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Will Warren (7-3, 3.73 ERA)
• Rays starter: Ian Seymour (5-1, 4.02 ERA)