Tigers vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 11

Our Tigers vs. Yankees prediction backs the first five innings Under to cash and Kerry Carpenter to go hitless.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 11, 2025 8:41 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Tigers vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 11 — Pictured: Detroit Tigers center fielder Javier Baez (28) forces out New York Yankees left fielder Cody Bellinger (35) at second base. Photo by Vincent Carchietta via Imagn Images.

It should be quite the atmosphere at Yankee Stadium tonight on the anniversary of the 9/11 tragedy as the New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers, and I break down this series finale with my Tigers vs. Yankees prediction as part of our MLB picks.

The Yankees are the -160 betting favorite to avoid the three-game sweep. But I cannot confidently back them at that price after losing the first two games of the series 23-3, so I am looking more at a game prop as my Tigers vs. Yankees best bet.

First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET (Local TV).

⚾ Tigers vs. Yankees prediction

MLB odds subject to change.

Moneyline pick: Yankees (-160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Run line pick: Tigers +1.5 (-145 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

📝 Tigers vs. Yankees preview & best bet

Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬇️ First five innings Under 4.5 (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

New York’s bullpen has had epic meltdowns in the first two games of this series. Following a quality start from Will Warren on Tuesday, Fernando Cruz and Mark Leiter Jr. combined to allow nine earned runs on four hits without recording an out, and a 2-2 game ballooned into a 12-2 loss quickly. Yesterday, New York’s bullpen combined for nine earned runs over three innings.

Out of fear of another collapse from its relievers, I am making the first five innings Under my Tigers vs. Yankees best bet.

Yankees righty Cam Schlittler has established himself as a more than viable postseason pitching option. He ended August with a three-start stretch where he pitched to a 0.48 ERA and recorded 24 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings.

The movement on Schlittler’s cutter is especially impressive. The seven inches of horizontal movement on the pitch trumps the MLB average of two inches, and he also gets four more inches of drop compared to the league average (29 to 25).

Detroit is going with a bullpen game and had tremendous success with that last year in the playoffs.

As of this writing, the few best sports betting sites that have this game prop available are all unified with +105 (carrying a 48.78% implied probability) to back the Under. At +105, a $10 winning wager would net $10.50 in profits.

💰 Best Tigers vs. Yankees player prop bet

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️ Kerry Carpenter Under 0.5 hits (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Schlittler has allowed a higher batting average to left-handed hitters than righties (.250 vs. 231), but he has limited lefties' power, with a slugging percentage 121 points lower than against righties. Thus, the ceiling for a lefty like Kerry Carpenter’s hits is much lower, which is why I am confidently backing this Under as my best Tigers vs. Yankees player prop bet.

Carpenter was batting just .167 with a .583 OPS over the last 15 days entering Wednesday. He has also been a much different hitter away from Comerica Park all season, as he has a .916 OPS in home games and a .697 OPS on the road.

Carpenter has gone hitless in six of his last 11 games, with just one multi-hit game in that span. That makes the 48.78% implied probability through DraftKings’ +105 odds for him to go hitless again appealing.

A $10 winning wager would return $10.50 in profits.

📊 Tigers vs. Yankees odds: Sept. 11

MLB odds update live in real time.

📈 Tigers vs. Yankees betting odds analysis

After opening as the -170 betting favorite, it is not a surprise to see the Yankees drop as low as -160 overnight after losing the first two games of this series by 20 combined runs. The total has remained firm at 8.5 runs and had gone from being juiced to -118 to the Over to as high as -121 at our best sports betting apps.

🔢 Tigers vs. Yankees stats

Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

Tigers (84-62)	Statistic (per game)	Yankees (80-65)
4.88	Runs	5.22
8.39	Hits	8.40
.250	AVG	.248
.421	SLG	.453
.740	OPS	.782
3.83	ERA	3.92
8.42	K/9	8.88
2.94	BB/9	3.51
1.14	HR/9	1.07

🚑 Tigers vs. Yankees injuries

📺 Tigers vs. Yankees game info

When: Thursday, Sept. 11
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where: Yankee Stadium (New York)
How to watch: Local TV

💡 Expert MLB predictions today

❓ Tigers vs. Yankees FAQs

Who is favored to win Tigers vs. Yankees?

The Yankees are the -160 betting favorite to beat the Tigers at home today.

What is the run line for Tigers vs. Yankees?

Detroit’s +1.5 odds are at -155 on the high end of the market, while New York’s -1.5 odds range from +122 to +126.

What is the Over/Under for Tigers vs. Yankees?

Most sports betting sites are setting the O/U at 8.5 runs, juiced to -120 for the Over and +100 for the Under.

What are the best bets for Tigers vs. Yankees?

My Tigers vs. Yankees best bets back the first five innings Under to cash and for Kerry Carpenter to go hitless.

When is the Tigers vs. Yankees game?

The Tigers vs. Yankees first pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET, airing on local television.

How do baseball odds work?

When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”