Royals vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 11
My Royals vs. Guardians prediction likes the home team in a matchup between two distant AL wild-card contenders. Thursday’s series finale starts at 7:15 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, airing on FOX.
The Guardians, who are a -135 favorite for the series finale, have won two of the past three to climb up to 3.5 games back of the final wild-card spot. Meanwhile, the Royals have fallen to four games back.
My MLB picks for this matchup expect Cleveland to win in a game that could feature plenty of runs. That’s why I also like Kansas City’s Jac Caglianone to drive in a run.
⚾ Royals vs. Guardians prediction
MLB odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Guardians (-135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Guardians -1.5 (+165 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Royals vs. Guardians preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🔥 Guardians to win (-135) ⭐⭐⭐
I have similar confidence in the Guardians’ moneyline and the Over, though I prefer the former at -136 or better. At the current -135 value, a $10 bet would lead to a $7.41 profit.
Cleveland is 7-5 against Kansas City this year, notching its eighth winning record in the last 10 years of this matchup between division foes. The Guardians have outscored the Royals by 20 runs in their previous 12 head-to-head meetings.
I expect the Guardians to continue to find offensive success against right-hander Stephen Kolek, who is 5-5 with a 3.88 ERA this season. He’s only started two games since being traded to the Royals, but his presence is a sign of how injured their rotation has become in the final month of the regular season.
Cleveland should take care of business on Thursday.
💰 Best Royals vs. Guardians player prop bet
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⬆️ Jac Caglianone Over 0.5 RBI (+300) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It’s nearly time for the Royals to shift their focus from a playoff push to giving their young players some playing time. Jac Caglianone hasn’t had the rookie season that many expected, but he’s quietly had better results since returning to the majors eight days ago.
Caglianone has two RBI in eight at-bats during the first three games of this series. THE BAT X projects 0.42 RBI for Caglianone on Thursday, but this +300 price tag has an implied probability of 25%. I’ll take that value, as a $10 bet generates a profit of $30.
📊 Royals vs. Guardians odds: Sept. 11
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Royals vs. Guardians betting odds analysis
The Guardians started as a -145 favorite, but the line has moved down despite 60% of all moneyline wagers being on the hosts. The total started at a flat 8 but has been bumped down, with 56% of bets coming in on the Under.
🔢 Royals vs. Guardians stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Royals (74-72) | Statistic (per game) | Guardians (74-71) |
|---|---|---|
| 3.82 | Runs | 3.91 |
| 8.1 | Hits | 7.4 |
| .244 | AVG | .225 |
| .390 | SLG | .370 |
| .695 | OPS | .666 |
| 3.66 | ERA | 3.87 |
| 8.0 | K/9 | 8.4 |
| 3.0 | BB/9 | 3.4 |
| 1.0 | HR/9 | 1.1 |
🚑 Royals vs. Guardians injuries
📺 Royals vs. Guardians game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 11
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
- How to watch: FOX
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❓ Royals vs. Guardians FAQs
Who is favored to win Royals vs. Guardians?
The Guardians are -135 to defeat the Royals, which gives them an implied probability of 57.45%.
What is the run line for Royals vs. Guardians?
Cleveland is a -1.5 run line favorite against Kansas City in the series finale.
What is the Over/Under for Royals vs. Guardians?
The total for Thursday’s Royals-Guardians game is 7.5.
What are the best bets for Royals vs. Guardians?
My best bets for the Royals-Guardians matchup are Cleveland moneyline (-135) and Jac Caglianone Over 0.5 RBI (+300).
When is the Royals vs. Guardians game?
First pitch for Royals vs. Guardians is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on Thursday.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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