⚾ Red Sox vs. Yankees Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 6)

My Red Sox vs. Yankees win probability breaks down tonight's matchup between LHP Ranger Suarez and RHP Will Warren.

With a 12-mph breeze blowing out to center field, I predict there will be a run in the first inning and that New York is being undervalued by the market. The Yankees have a 52% chance to win on the prediction market apps, and I'm expecting them to have success early against Suarez, who is coming off back-to-back poor outings. First pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., is set for 7:35 p.m. ET (MLB.TV, FOX).

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🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Yankees? Live MLB win probability

The Yankees have a 52% chance to win straight up against the Red Sox (48%), with the market showing over $155,000 in volume at the time of publication. New York opened with a 53% win probability over Boston (47%), so we have seen virtually no movement since Thursday. I would've expected the Yankees to have a higher Yes price playing at home with Warren on the mound.

This is the second game of a three-game set, with Boston winning Friday's opener, 5-3. Willson Contreras (2-for-4, 3 RBIs) hit a two-run shot in the fifth inning, which ended up driving in the winning run.

He has homered in back-to-back games for the Red Sox, who have won 10 of their last 13 on the road.

The Yankees have gone 1-3 since Aaron Judge went down with a rib injury, scoring four or fewer runs in each game. New York had a 75.4% win probability, per ESPN Analytics, in the second inning on Friday, with two runners on base and a 1-0 lead, but the Red Sox scored two runs in the third to take control of the game.

My prediction: Yankees win (52%). While Suarez is a better pitcher than Warren overall, his recent struggles present the perfect opportunity for the Yankees to bounce back after losing the series opener. Suarez has allowed four or more earned runs in each of his last two starts, and playing at Yankee Stadium with the wind blowing out to center field isn’t ideal for a struggling pitcher. For more baseball picks, see our best home run predictions today from our MLB expert Mike Spector.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Red Sox vs. Yankees?

The market is currently projecting a 51% chance that there is a run scored in the first inning (while the No price is listed at 50%). The Yes originally opened at 47% on Thursday, but money has since flooded the buy side, pushing it up 4%.

Suarez has allowed a first-inning run in three of his 11 starts this season, with one of those outings coming against the Yankees on April 22 in Boston.

Amed Rosario homered on an 81-mph changeup, scoring Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, who had walked and doubled, respectively.

Warren has been slightly better than Suarez in this stat, allowing a first-inning run in three of his 12 starts this year. He hasn’t faced Boston yet, but he did allow three first-inning runs to the A’s in Sacramento during his last outing on Sunday, though none were charged to him, as Trent Grisham committed a fielding error.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning (51%). We have a pitcher in Suarez who has allowed a total of nine earned runs over his last two starts, and another in Warren who is due for regression after posting a 3.22 ERA this season (compared to 4.44 in 2025). Suarez is trending downward (for the time being), and Warren is not as good as his stats suggest, so the YRFI has a better-than-51% chance of happening.

📊 Red Sox vs. Yankees win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Yankees

• Date: Saturday, June 6
• First pitch: 7:35 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Red Sox starter: Ranger Suarez (2-3, 3.38 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Will Warren (7-1, 3.22 ERA)