⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Saturday, June 6
Two of my best home run predictions today come from players who have a double-digit home run total already this season, as Shohei Ohtani and Nick Kurtz look to stay hot against rival opponents.
My other two MLB home run picks are household names, but provide value from an odds perspective considering they don’t have the gaudy home run totals as the other two sluggers. Christian Yelich looks to take advantage of the altitude at Coors Field, while George Springer tires to get his mojo back against a Baltimore Orioles pitcher he has had success against in the past.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 6
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| George Springer to hit a home run (+495 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.24u | Springer gets a great matchup against Kyle Bradish to end a 10-game HR drought |
| Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+265 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.66u | The AL Player of the Month in May looks for a home run in his third straight series |
| Christian Yelich to hit a home run (+520 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.3u | Tanner Gordon has had difficulty keeping left-handed batters in the yard |
| Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+255 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.64u | Ohtani has been the NL's best hitter since May 11 |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 3.84 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
George Springer to hit a home run (+495)
George Springer is currently amid a 10-game home run drought, but that includes a three-game series against the Orioles, against whom he hit safely in every game.
Springer has a .421/.421/.824 slash line in 19 career at-bats against Kyle Bradish. Though just one of his eight hits in that split has been a home run, a whopping five others have gone for extra bases.
Bradish’s xBA, xERA, and xSLG are on pace to regress for the third straight season, and his two primary pitches (sinker and slider) either have a zero or negative run value.
📡 SBR Edge: Springer's success against Baltimore
George Springer has 21 home runs in 439 plate appearances against the Orioles, which is his fifth-most against any other team, and most against any team not from the AL West where he spent the majority of his career.
🔥 More home run picks today
Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+600)
Nick Kurtz had a five-game RBI streak snapped in Thursday’s series finale against the Cubs. During that streak, he batted .444 with three home runs and six RBI.
Kurtz was named American League Player of the Month after batting .333 with 12 extra-base hits, 26 RBI, and a 1.025 OPS in 28 games. He ranks third in wRC+ (min. 150 PA), and his .435 batting average with runners in scoring position and two outs also ranks third (min. 20 PA).
Kurtz will look to expose Tatsuya Imai, who has allowed a high 12% pull air percentage and 1.5 HR/9 rate, as those that can elevate his pitches outside of his 89th percentile ground ball rate have had success leaving the yard.
Christian Yelich to hit a home run (+520)
On Monday, Christian Yelich turned in his 74th career three-hit game with the Brewers, tying him for the ninth-most in franchise history (he has two other multi-hit games since then). Three of his four home runs came in May, and though he hasn’t yet homered in four June games, his OPS is up to .916 this month.
Yelich gets a great matchup against Tanner Gordon, who has allowed all six of his home runs (in 69 at-bats) to left-handed hitters. Lefties have a .725 slugging percentage and 1.122 OPS against him, and should remain that way if his ninth percentile ground ball rate and fifth percentile barrel rate continue.
Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+255)
Shohei Ohtani was out of the lineup Thursday, which meant he entered this series with a four-game multi-hit streak. And over a 19-game on-base streak, Ohtani has batted .438 with 13 extra-base hits, 17 RBI, and 16 runs scored.
To say Ohtani has gotten hot lately is an understatement. Over 180 plate appearances through May 11, Ohtani was slashing .233/.363/.404 with six home runs. Since May 11 entering yesterday, he has made 90 plate appearances and is slashing .438/.533/.753 with four home runs, leading the majors in all categories over that span (min. 60 PA).
Jack Kochanowicz allowed three home runs in his last start against the Dodgers, and I’m banking on Ohtani getting in on that action tonight.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
While two of the four sluggers in this home run parlay have hit five or fewer home runs (Springer and Yelich), they each either have prior success against tonight's opposing starting pitcher, or are playing in home run-friendly environments. But I am balancing out those value plays with some of the top home run sluggers in each league, while adding value to the parlay with Ohtani and Kurtz.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- George Springer to hit a home run (+495)
- Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+241)
- Christian Yelich to hit a home run (+468)
- Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+255)
Best odds: +40812 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 40.8u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
It was easy to identify Yelich as one of my MLB home run picks today, as I wanted to get behind a player appearing in the Brewers-Rockies matchup from Coors Field. Backing Ohtani and Kurtz were important as I normally try to back other bigger name sluggers at the top of the MLB home run leaderboard. I'm also content with adding Springer to my home run portfolio, as it was difficult to find a batter with as much career success as he had against tonight's opposing starting pitcher from the day's 15-game slate.
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