Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, July 24

East Coast meets West Coast in this series opener between the New York Mets and the MLB-best Los Angeles Dodgers. My Dodgers vs. Mets prediction expects a big win for Los Angeles given Sean Manaea’s struggles against winning teams. I am also backing Roki Sasaki to stay Under his projected earned run total, and a Dodgers slugger to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

First pitch from Citi Field in Queens, N.Y., is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), and the Dodgers are a -155 betting favorite.

⚾ Dodgers vs. Mets picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.09 units

🏆 Who will win Dodgers vs. Mets?

The Dodgers have won two-thirds of their games against NL East opponents, and the Mets being ranked 28th at 17 games under .500 against opponents with a winning record makes for a big victory from the road favorites.

Score prediction: Dodgers 6, Mets 3

💰 Dodgers vs. Mets prediction & best bet

Dodgers -1.5 (+114)

The Mets are 1-4 in Sean Manaea’s last five starts while being outscored 35-to-17. The southpaw also has no quality starts in his last four outings against teams with a winning record, while pitching to a 6.00 ERA and 22:6 K:BB ratio in 18 innings in that stretch.

Los Angeles is 5-2 in Sasaki’s last seven starts, with four of those wins coming by one run. But I’m still laying the 1.5 runs with the road favorites, given that the Dodgers have won nine of their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record.  

🔥 Best Dodgers vs. Mets player prop bet

Roki Sasaki Under 2.5 earned runs (-150)

Roki Sasaki has an uncommon -0.2 WAR as a starting pitcher on a team with a .631 winning percentage. But the righty is also coming off 5 ⅔ innings with zero earned runs in a road start against the Yankees, and has now allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last five road starts.

Amid a 2-5 stretch at one point last week, the Mets offense averaged just 2.6 runs per game, while collectively logging a .295 on-base percentage and .339 slugging percentage.

Sasaki has the advantage of unfamiliarity, with this being his first start against the Mets in his second big-league season. While he has gotten into trouble with three-plus walks in two of his last three road starts, that isn’t as much of an issue when facing a Mets lineup that ranks 23rd in walk rate against right-handed pitching.

💣 Dodgers vs. Mets home run prediction

Mookie Betts to hit a home run (+540)

Sean Manaea has allowed a .284/.356/.629 slash line with 11 home runs in 116 combined at-bats to current Dodgers hitters. Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker are responsible for seven of those 11. And while Tucker’s four homers in 20 at-bats are more impressive than Betts’ three home runs in 32, I am still siding with the hotter hitter.

Betts snapped a 15-game home run drought with his second multi-home run game of the season on Monday. He has logged a .818 OPS over the last 30 days, and his head-to-head success against Manaea with a 1.153 OPS and seven of his 10 hits going for extra bases raises my confidence despite him having hit just two home runs off of left-handed pitching.

🚀 Dodgers vs. Mets same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely to increase Los Angeles' chances of covering the run line. I went a more conservative route with swapping Betts' home run wager for him to combine for at least two hits, runs, and RBI. Though Betts has homered in just one game this month, he has still gone Over this projected total in three of the last 10 games. And since FanDuel did not offer a chance to back the Under on Sasaki's earned runs, I'm going with the juice and expecting a low ceiling for his strikeout total.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Dodgers vs. Mets: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Typically I set the cutoff between backing a team's moneyline odds and run line odds at -160, as Los Angeles only has steeper than -160 moneyline odds at bet365. However, I could not ignore New York's run differential in Manaea's starts of late, and it was a much easier pill to swallow laying the 1.5 runs at plus-money odds with the best team in the Majors against the NL's third-worst team.

From a player prop perspective, I also wouldn't put anyone off backing Kyle Tucker's home run odds (+860 at DraftKings) or 1.5 H/R/RBI odds (-105 via BetMGM) given his success in fewer at-bats against Manaea than Betts (1.381 OPS and four home runs in 20 at-bats).

📊 Live Dodgers vs. Mets odds

Even though the betting splits are more than 2/1 in favor of Los Angeles, the line still moved away from the road favorites overnight, as much as five cents at the best MLB betting sites. That suggests much of the 69% of the early wagers placed on the Mets' moneyline has been sharp action.

Currently, the best sports betting sites are in unison with an O/U of 9, up from an opening number of 8.5 at several sportsbooks. The betting splits are near dead even (53/47 in favor of the Over), and the steep juice of -120 and -122 to back the Under at BetMGM and bet365, respectively, along with the betting splits, a move back to 8.5 may happen before first pitch. 

📈 Dodgers vs. Mets betting trends

🚑 Dodgers vs. Mets injuries

📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Mets

• Date: Friday, July 24
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Dodgers starter: Roki Sasaki (3-5, 4.98 ERA)
• Mets starter: Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.74 ERA)