Yankees vs. Phillies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, July 24
My Yankees vs. Phillies prediction breaks down tonight's matchup between two ball clubs in playoff contention.
It's Cam Schlittler vs. Jesus Luzardo, each carrying winning records as a starter for their respective team. My MLB picks for tonight feature a total, two player props, and an SGP. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 6:45 p.m. ET (Apple TV), with the Phillies listed as a -140 favorite.
⚾ Yankees vs. Phillies picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.0 (-115 via Caesars) | 1.15u → 1u | Under 8.0 has won in three straight starts by Jesus Luzardo. |
| Trea Turner Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-120 via bet365) | 1.2u → 1u | Trea Turner has a hit in 4 of last 5 games, cashing over 1.5 H+R+RBIs in 2 of past 5 starts. |
| Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Home Runs (+215 via DraftKings) | 1u → 2.15u | Schwarber ranks 92nd in xSLG, 96th in avg exit velo, and 98th in barrel percentage. |
Total wagered: 3.37 units | Max profit: 4.35 units
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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Phillies?
The Yankees have been the hotter team lately, winning three of their last four contests. However, the Phillies hold a slight pitching edge with Luzardo on the mound tonight, as he's held five straight opponents to one or fewer earned runs. Philadelphia grinds out a 4-1 win at home.
Score prediction: Phillies 4, Yankees 1
💰 Yankees vs. Phillies prediction & best bet
Under 8.0 (-115)
The run total is up to 8.0 at select sportsbooks, which means we're going to roll out an under in tonight's game between two streaky lineups and a pair of high-quality pitchers.
The total has gone under in seven of the Yankees' last nine games played. Jesus Luzardo has seen the run total dip under 8.0 in three straight starts for the Phillies.
Schlittler has also gone under 8.0 in two of his previous three starts for the Yankees. Let's ride under 8.0 tonight, available at -115 odds on Caesars.
📡 SBR Edge: Bronx Bombers Go Low on the Road
The Yankees have gone under or pushed 8.0 total runs in four of their last five road starts.
🔥 Best Yankees vs. Phillies player prop bet
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-120)
Trea Turner has recorded a hit in four of his last five starts for the Phillies. He's also logged six runs and six RBIs during this recent five-game stretch, which includes two multi-hit bursts.
Turner faces Cam Schlittler tonight, who ranks below the 50th percentile in barrel percentage (8.3) and hard-hit rate (38.9) this season. This presents an opportunity for Turner to bounce back after his last start, which snapped a six-game hitting streak.
Go to bet365 to get -120 odds on Turner's Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs player prop against the Yankees on Friday night.
💣 Yankees vs. Phillies home run prediction
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+215)
Kyle Schwarber remains a relatively short, chalky home run play against Schlittler tonight. The Phillies' top home run hitter (33) is seeking to tie the league lead with Yordan Alvarez, which would end a four-game drought.
Schwarber's power metrics are off the charts. He's ranked 92nd in xSLG (.505), 95th in hard hit rate (52.3), 96th in avg exit velo (93.2) and 98th in barrel percentage (18.9) in 2026.
Citizens Bank Park is among the top hitter-friendly ballparks in the MLB. Factor in Schwarber's power, combined with Schlittler's inability to limit barrel percentage and hard-hit rate, and it's a recipe for a Schwarber dinger.
Bet Schwarber to hit a home run at +215 odds on DraftKings.
🚀 Yankees vs. Phillies same-game parlay
Cody Bellinger carries a four-game hit streak into tonight's tilt against the Phillies. Let's pair the Yankees southpaw with Brandon Marsh, who leads the Phillies in hits (105), in the Over 0.5 Hits player prop market for an SGP at +136 odds on Caesars.
💵 Yankees vs. Phillies SGP picks
- Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 Hits (-182)
- Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Hits (-190)
Best odds: +136 via Caesars (1u -> 1.36u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-59-3 | -16.33 units ❌ | -22.5% ❌ |
| Game picks | 5-14-2 | -12.03 units ❌ | -38.24% ❌ |
| Player props | 13-32-1 | -2.06 units ❌ | -6.8% ❌ |
| Parlays | 8-13 | -2.25 units ❌ | -13.3% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Phillies: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm staking at least 1 unit on all four wagers in tonight's game between the Yankees and Phillies. It starts with 1.15 units on under 8.0, with two inconsistent lineups facing a pair of talented pitchers.
For player props, I'm staking 1.2 units on Turner to go Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. Then, in a rare move, I'm dropping a full unit on a home run prop for Kyle Schwarber at +215 odds.
1 more unit will be placed on a two-leg player hit parlay for Cody Bellinger and Brandon Marsh, which is our second plus-odds wager on this betting card.
📊 Live Yankees vs. Phillies odds
The moneyline has moved toward the Phillies since opening, going from -127 to -136 odds. The run total has also moved down, opening at 8.5 and now sitting at 7.5 on select shops.
56 percent of public action is on the Phillies moneyline. 69 percent of the public is on the Yankees +1.5, while 52 percent of wagers are on over 7.5 total runs.
📈 Yankees vs. Phillies betting trends
| Yankees | Statistic | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| 57-45 | W-L record | 56-47 |
| 48-54 | Run line record | 39-64 |
| 44-54-4 | O/U record | 43-57-3 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 3.38 | Team ERA | 4.27 |
| .236 | Team batting avg. | .236 |
| .735 | OPS | .705 |
🚑 Yankees vs. Phillies injuries
📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Phillies
- Date: Friday, July 24
- First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- Streaming: Apple TV
- Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (9-6, 2.20 ERA)
- Phillies starter: Jesus Luzardo (9-4, 3.43 ERA)
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