⚾ Rangers vs. Red Sox Win Probability: Who Will Win Tonight’s MLB Game? (June 14)

RHP Nathan Eovaldi and LHP Connelly Early are set to meet tonight on Sunday Night Baseball, so let's break down the Rangers vs. Red Sox win probability.

With 28-mph wind gusts blowing out to left-center field, I predict there will be a run in the first inning. The Red Sox have a 51% chance to win on the prediction market apps, but I'm expecting the Rangers to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this three-game set. First pitch from Fenway Park in Boston is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock).

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🏆 Who will win Rangers vs. Red Sox? Live MLB win probability

The market is projecting a 51% chance, as of the time of publication, that the Red Sox will beat the Rangers (49%). Texas actually opened with a 54% win probability on Friday, but money has since come in on Boston after it won the first two games of this series. More than $46,000 in volume has been traded so far.

If you'd like to buy contracts on the Red Sox to win at 52 cents, you can instantly get more than $320,000 filled. However, if you'd like to buy "Yes" contracts on the Rangers to win at 49 cents, the maximum amount you can instantly get filled is slightly more than $190,000.

My prediction: Rangers win (49¢). It's hard to beat a team, even a middling one like the Rangers, three times in a row. Now, I'm not saying to blindly back teams to avoid a sweep (as we know that isn't profitable in the long term, given how efficient the market has become). However, the Rangers haven't lost three games in a row since a four-game skid from May 22-25, and the Red Sox have lost each of Early's last two starts. For more baseball picks, see our best home run predictions today from our MLB expert Mike Spector.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Rangers vs. Red Sox?

The market is projecting a 50% chance that there will be a run scored in the first inning (or a 50% chance of a NRFI, if you're a glass-half-empty kind of person).

Only $6,700 in volume has been traded in this market. If you'd like to buy contracts on "Yes" for there to be a run scored in the first inning at 51 cents, the most you can get filled instantly is slightly more than $1,000, while you can get slightly more than $1,500 filled instantly on "No" at 50 cents.

There have been no runs scored in the first inning in each of Eovaldi's last two starts, while there has been a run scored in the first inning in each of Early's last two.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning (51¢). Eovaldi and Early should have a fairly difficult time keeping this game low-scoring tonight, with 28-mph wind gusts blowing out to left-center. While the NRFI hit in Saturday's meeting between these teams, the Red Sox scored two runs in the first inning during Friday's series opener, and the Rangers scored one. The only Rangers player that Early has faced so far in his career is Elias Diaz, who has a home run off him in three at-bats. Josh Jung is slashing .302/.393/.453 against lefties this season, so that will likely be the most dangerous spot in the lineup for Early in the first inning.

📊 Rangers vs. Red Sox win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publication.

📺 How to watch Rangers vs. Red Sox

• Date: Sunday, June 14
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock
• Rangers starter: Nathan Eovaldi (5-7, 4.26 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Connelly Early (5-4, 3.30 ERA)