⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Sunday, June 14
My best home run predictions today are very American League-centric, as I back four sluggers from the same league. Pete Alonso has four career home runs off of today’s opposing starting pitcher, while George Springer’s eyes seemingly light up every time he sees the Bronx Bombers’ pinstripes.
I’d also be foolish not to add an Athletics batter to my four-pack of MLB home run picks given the frequency at which they leave the yard at Las Vegas Ballpark. And I round out my plays with a Mariners slugger, as Seattle continues to hit home runs in bunches.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 14
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Dominic Canzone to hit a home run (+375 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.94u | Canzone is a big reason Seattle gets the highest percentage of its runs via home run |
| Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+315 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.79u | Four of Alonso's five career hits off Walker Buehler are homers |
| George Springer to hit a home run (+521 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.30u | Springer has elite numbers against the Yankees since the start of 2024 |
| Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+194 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.49u | The Athletics lineup has mashed 18 home runs in five games at Las Vegas Ballpark |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 3.52 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Dominic Canzone to hit a home run (+375)
No team gets a higher percentage of its runs via the home run as the Mariners. Dominic Canzone is the best bet to add to that home run total today, as he has batted .412 with a .794 slugging percentage in 12 games in June.
Canzone sets to tee off on Miles Mikolas, whose 3.18 HR/9 rate in home games is the second worst of all pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 20 innings at home. Mikolas has allowed seven homers a piece to both left-handed and right-handed batters, with an OPS 34 points higher against lefties.
📡 SBR Edge: Home runs in bunches
Miles Mikolas has allowed more home runs in home starts (three) than games with one or fewer home runs in that split (two) this season, while pitching to a 7.94 home ERA.
🔥 More home run picks today
Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+315)
No player among today’s 15-game slate has more career home runs against their opposing pitcher than Pete Alonso does against Walker Buehler. Alonso’s all-or-nothing approach is epitomized in his head-to-head matchups with Buehler, as he has five hits total in 17 at-bats, with four of them being home runs.
Entering this series, Alonso had belted seven home runs and drove in 18 runs over his previous 21 games. Both of those were tied for the second-most in the American League over that span (since May 20). He was always due positive regression for poor splits with runners in scoring position (.200 batting average) and with the bases loaded (.083) before Friday’s two-RBI day after batting .309 and .267 in those splits, respectively, last season.
George Springer to hit a home run (+521)
George Springer elevates his game against the Yankees. After going 1-for-2 with a home run on Friday, he was batting .310 with 10 home runs and 26 RBI in 35 games against New York since the start of 2024 (including playoffs). He also homered three times in his first five games against the Yankees this season, matching his home run total in 43 games against the rest of the league.
Springer looks to stay hot against Will Warren. Prior to Warren inducing nine ground ball outs to two fly ball outs in his last start, he recorded 28 fly ball outs to nine ground ball outs in his previous two road starts.
Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+194)
The Athletics’ home run total is up to 18 through their first five games of the six-game homestand at Las Vegas Ballpark. Nick Kurtz was responsible for one of those on Friday, and gets a matchup with Tomoyuki Sugano, whose 1.9 HR/9 rate last season was one of the worst among qualified starting pitchers. Now Sugano’s 46.5% hard-hit rate and 31.4% fly ball rate are worse than last year’s rates of 40% and 28.6%.
Entering the weekend, Kurtz had belted eight homers while slugging .854 and driving in 13 runs in his last 13 games. I expect him to take advantage of the fact that Sugano has allowed multiple home runs in two of his last four road starts.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
This four-leg home run parlay features all AL sluggers who are either red hot over the last two weeks, or have some combination of success either against today's opposing starting pitcher, or the team they are facing. While two of my picks rank in the top 14 of all MLB hitters in home runs, there is still great value added with other picks like Springer.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Dominic Canzone to hit a home run (+298)
- Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+315)
- George Springer to hit a home run (+521)
- Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+165)
Best odds: +27081 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 27.1u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
There is little doubt that Alonso's and Springer's home run odds are somewhat compromised because of their successes against the pitcher or team they're facing, while Kurtz's odds get dinged because of the launching pad that we've come to know Las Vegas Ballpark plays like. But they are still great value plays given two of those sluggers rank in the top 14 in home runs. I balance that with even more value from one of Seattle's hottest sluggers amid a home run-dependent lineup.
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