🩸 UFC Freedom 250 Predictions: Topuria vs. Gaethje Picks, Fight Card & Betting Lines

The UFC makes history on Sunday as UFC Freedom 250 takes over the South Lawn of the White House in Washington. Headlined by an undisputed lightweight title unification between champion Ilia Topuria and interim champion Justin Gaethje, we're breaking down our UFC Freedom 250 predictions for every fight ahead of all the action.

UFC Freedom 250 runs as a seven-fight main card with no preliminary bouts. The co-main event is an interim heavyweight title fight where former two-division champion Alex Pereira moves up to chase history against Ciryl Gane. The entire card streams on Paramount+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

There’s one thing worth flagging before you wager a dollar on this card. UFC Freedom 250 is an outdoor event on an open lawn, a setting the sport essentially never uses, and a novel stage like this can introduce variables that are tough to price. Fighters have grumbled about sightlines, lighting, and sound at unusual outdoor setups before, and the spectacle of this particular venue only adds to it. There's an inherent randomness here that the UFC Freedom 250 odds may not fully capture, so keep it in mind on every play.

---

📊 UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje odds – Main Card

Ilia Topuria (17-0) vs. Justin Gaethje (27-5)

Ilia Topuria notes

• El Matador: The undefeated two-division champion knocked out three straight former titleholders in Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira to capture belts at featherweight and lightweight
• Key stat: Sits at 17-0 as a professional with elite boxing, landing 4.81 significant strikes per minute and defending takedowns at a 92% clip

Justin Gaethje notes

• The Highlight: The 37-year-old interim champion took this title shot by outslugging Paddy Pimblett and ending the Scouser's nine-fight win streak, likely his final crack at undisputed gold
• Key stat: Dropped Pimblett multiple times and outlanded him 219-177 at UFC 324, extending one of the most violent and bonus-heavy résumés in UFC history

🩸 Betting outlook

This should be a firefight, and it's Gaethje's last shot, so he'll fight reckless. Topuria is too sound and too powerful, and he wears everyone down. I love Topuria by KO (-200) parlayed with the over 1.5 (-112). If you fear a quick finish, play the KO straight.

---

Alex Pereira (13-3) vs. Ciryl Gane (13-2)

Alex Pereira notes

• Poatan: The former middleweight and light heavyweight king moves up to heavyweight and can become the first fighter in UFC history to win titles in three weight classes
• Key stat: Owns 13 wins built around a devastating left hand, and reclaimed his light heavyweight belt with an emphatic knockout of Magomed Ankalaev in October 2025

Ciryl Gane notes

• Bon Gamin: The former interim heavyweight champion owns some of the slickest footwork and boxing the division has ever seen and has spent the entire decade near the top of the rankings
• Key stat: Carries a 13-2 record with six knockout wins, and a victory makes him just the second man after Gaethje to hold a UFC interim title twice

🩸 Betting outlook

Tough call, but I lean Ciryl Gane. Pereira's explosive power carried him at lighter weights, yet he'll be slower against bigger heavyweights who absorb it. Gane has lived near the top for years with crisp boxing. I like Gane at -110, my only play. No confident method read.

---

Sean O'Malley (19-3) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (14-2)

Sean O'Malley notes

• Suga: The former bantamweight champion returns after rebounding from back-to-back title losses to Merab Dvalishvili with a clean decision over Song Yadong in January
• Key stat: Holds a 19-3 record and uses a long 72-inch reach to pile up volume from distance as one of the division's most patient strikers

Aiemann Zahabi notes

• Icemann: The Tristar product and brother of coach Firas Zahabi has quietly become a top contender, riding a seven-fight win streak into the biggest fight of his career
• Key stat: Sits at 14-2 with technical decision wins over José Aldo, Marlon Vera, and Pedro Munhoz, showing the chin to weather adversity and keep his shape

🩸 Betting outlook

Zahabi is defensive and hard to rattle, the type who weathers a storm and keeps coming. O'Malley fights patiently now and may lack the pop to drop him. I love this fight to go the distance at -164, the best play. O'Malley by decision (+110) is a fine add.

---

Josh Hokit (9-0) vs. Derrick Lewis (29-13)

Josh Hokit notes

• Incredible Hok: The undefeated former NFL athlete and Fresno State All-American wrestler vaulted into the heavyweight top five by surviving a brutal war with Curtis Blaydes at UFC 327
• Key stat: Stands at 9-0 with five knockouts and three submissions, taking heavy damage against Blaydes and pressing forward the entire fight

Derrick Lewis notes

• The Beast: The old-guard knockout artist and fan favorite arrives off a second-round stoppage loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta in January
• Key stat: Holds the UFC record for the most knockout wins in promotional history, but at 41 he looked flat and disengaged in his most recent outing

🩸 Betting outlook

I'm taking Josh Hokit to crush Lewis, and it won't stay close. Hokit has momentum after his Blaydes war, while Lewis looked apathetic and likely arrives unsharp. Make Hokit by KO (-105) the full emphasis, fantastic value against a faded veteran. Hokit in Round 1 (+110) is a fine play, too.

---

Mauricio Ruffy (13-2) vs. Michael Chandler (23-10)

Mauricio Ruffy notes

• One Shot: The Brazilian finisher has turned into must-watch TV, landing one of 2025's best knockouts on Bobby Green before starching Rafael Fiziev for a Performance of the Night bonus
• Key stat: Carries a 13-2 record with the vast majority of his wins by knockout, hunting the finish from the opening bell

Michael Chandler notes

• Iron: The former Bellator champion returns after more than a year on the shelf, trying to halt a cold stretch on the sport's biggest stage
• Key stat: Hasn't had his hand raised since stopping Tony Ferguson in 2022 and has gone 1-5 over his last six bouts

🩸 Betting outlook

Eye-popping line. Chandler has looked washed, though maybe not a +460 dog. Either way, I love the under 1.5 at -128. The over sits at +102 if you want it, but I want the early finish. In a phone-booth war, someone hits the deck inside a round and a half.

---

Bo Nickal (8-1) vs. Kyle Daukaus (17-4)

Bo Nickal notes

• The Animal: The three-time NCAA Division I wrestling champion rebounded from his first pro loss with a highlight head-kick knockout of Rodolfo Vieira at UFC 322
• Key stat: Sits at 8-1 with four submissions, blending elite wrestling control with finishing pop in both phases

Kyle Daukaus notes

• The choke artist: The Philadelphia grappler rides a six-fight win streak and returned to the UFC with back-to-back finishes of Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert in a combined 93 seconds
• Key stat: Owns a 17-4 record with 12 submission wins, a 70% submission rate that makes him dangerous any time the fight hits the mat

🩸 Betting outlook

This is a double-chance spot. I like Bo Nickal by submission or decision at +100. He knocked someone out last time, but expect him to lean on his wrestling against Daukaus and grind out a White House statement. Take the sub prop (+380) or the safer double chance (+100).

---

Diego Lopes (27-8) vs. Steve Garcia (19-5)

Diego Lopes notes

• The pressure fighter: The Brazilian contender dropped two featherweight title decisions to Alexander Volkanovski but stopped Jean Silva in a Fight of the Night headliner in between
• Key stat: Holds a 27-8 record with a granite chin and real championship-round cardio, hanging tough deep into both Volkanovski fights

Steve Garcia notes

• Mean Machine: The Jackson Winand finisher opens the card on a seven-fight win streak and views this as a true BMF matchup against a fellow high-pace striker
• Key stat: Sits at 19-5 with a long 75-inch reach for 145, stopping six of his last seven opponents, four of them in the opening round

🩸 Betting outlook

I love Steve Garcia. The Mean Machine is long, though Lopes owns a granite chin and deep cardio. It's a close fight, so I'll lean Garcia at +136. I also like the distance at +186, the better value, given two tough finishers and a jittery outdoor stage.

---

📺 Where to watch UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

• Date: Sunday, June 14
• Start time: 8 p.m. ET (full card)
• Location: South Lawn of the White House (Washington)
• Streaming: Paramount+

---

📃 Affiliate disclosure

Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)