Rangers vs. Astros Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, July 31

The top two teams in the AL West begin a pivotal three-game series as the Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers from Daikin Park. My Rangers vs. Astros prediction backs the home squad to take over first place after starting the day just a half-game back, with Hunter Brown limiting one of Texas’ hottest bats in Wyatt Langford. I also expect Jeremy Pena to continue his torrid hitting by taking Nathan Eovaldi deep with the last of my MLB picks.

First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET, streaming on Apple TV. The Astros are -125 betting favorites.

⚾ Rangers vs. Astros picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

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🏆 Who will win Rangers vs. Astros?

There is no team in the American League with a better record against winning teams than the Astros, and I expect them to take this series opener.

Score prediction: Astros 4, Rangers 3

💰 Rangers vs. Astros prediction & best bet

Astros ML (-126)

Houston has the best winning percentage in the AL against teams with a winning record (.576). It is 8-1 since being swept by the Orioles to begin the second half, while averaging 5.6 runs per game in that span.  

Texas is an eye-popping 6-1 in Nathan Eovaldi’s last seven starts, with the righty winning five of his previous six decisions. But the Astros are one of four teams that tagged him for five runs this season, and he has allowed a .541 slugging percentage and .878 OPS in 169 combined at-bats to current Astros hitters.

🔥 Best Rangers vs. Astros player prop bet

Wyatt Langford Under total bases (-175)

Wyatt Langford did not miss any time after fouling a pitch off his left foot and ankle last Saturday, a game in which he went 3-for-4 with two doubles. But it is fair to wonder if that soreness has affected him at the plate since, as he had two hits in his next 17 at-bats, with just one extra-base hit (a double) in that span.

I was always going to expect a lower ceiling at the plate for Langford in this matchup, as he is just 1-for-15 with four strikeouts in his career against Hunter Brown. One could argue Langford sees the ball well out of Brown’s hands after drawing a disciplined five walks in that split. But bases on balls do not count towards a player’s total bases, so Langford will need a multi-hit game or break out of his power slump to cash this Over.

💣 Rangers vs. Astros home run prediction

Jeremy Pena to hit a home run (+660)

After Jeremy Pena homered in Wednesday’s win, his sixth home run in a nine-game span, he is now on pace for 22 home runs this season, which would tie a single-season high from his rookie year of 2022.

Pena is elevating the ball at the highest rate of his career (24.6% fly ball rate), which has also paid off in single-season highs in ISO (.191) and home run percentage (4.5%).

Pena has slashed .313/.353/.750 with two home runs in 16 career at-bats against Eovaldi. The righty has allowed multiple home runs in two of his four July starts, and two of his four hits allowed in his last start against the Astros also cleared the fence.

🚀 Rangers vs. Astros same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely together to help Houston's chances of winning outright. Trends not only suggest Langford is due to produce one or fewer total bases, but Pena has recorded a combination of at least two hits, runs, and RBI in nine of the last 11 games, with him going Over this projected total on hits alone five times in that span.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Rangers vs. Astros: MLB strategy

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Texas' 6-1 record in Eovaldi's last seven starts initially gave me pause and had me looking to see if a play on the total was the smarter approach. But the righty's inconsistency all season, especially against Houston with one good and one bad start, had me backing the Astros behind their ace. Houston has been a giant killer with Brown on the mound this season, winning three of his four starts against teams over .500, including two AL division leaders.

I would also not put anyone off backing Langford to go hitless instead of playing the Under on his total bases, with the best price being +157 (38.91% implied odds) at DraftKings.

📊 Live Rangers vs. Astros odds

There is a big 13-cent gap at the best MLB betting sites between Houston's shortest odds at FanDuel at -126 and the -139 price (carrying a 58.16% implied probability) at bet365. Despite that big gap, the line has moved largely in the underdog's favor, as Houston is down as much as 10 cents from -140 to -130 at BetMGM. This is a case of reverse line movement suggesting sharp action on Texas, as the Astros have received 54% of the early wagers.

The O/U is in unison at 8 across the best sports betting sites. Only bet365 moved off its original number at any point since last night, briefly dipping to 7.5. We're not likely to see much movement in this line before first pitch if the betting splits remain the same, as 53% of early wagers have backed the Over.

📈 Rangers vs. Astros betting trends

🚑 Rangers vs. Astros injuries

📺 How to watch Rangers vs. Astros

• Date: Friday, July 31
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Daikin Park (Houston)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Rangers starter: Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 4.05 ERA)
• Astros starter: Hunter Brown (2-1, 3.45 ERA)