⚾ Phillies vs. Padres Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 25)

Despite the difference in their record, the Philadelphia Phillies (26-27) and San Diego Padres (31-21) are surprisingly similar in some ways.

Most notably the inconsistent at best offenses, with both units ranking toward the bottom of the league. That's partly why the gap is so narrow as we look at the Phillies vs. Padres win probability from the prediction market apps.  

But the gap is indeed there, with Philadelphia as the slight favorite as this three-game series begins, mostly because of a heavily slanted starting pitching matchup.

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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Padres? Live MLB win probability

On one side we have the Padres' Griffin Canning taking the mound, who's been a fiery mess. He's given up 15 earned runs across just his past three starts, leading to a bloated 9.00 ERA.

Canning is getting demolished, with his 91.6 mph average exit velocity allowed sitting in just the fifth percentile, according to Baseball Savant. So very little has been working for him, including a changeup he throws 32.9% of the time, and it's getting diced up for a .423 batting average.

Then there's the Phillies' Jesus Luzardo, who's expected ERA of 3.21 sits notably lower than the lefty's actual production of 4.85. The latter is his reality, even though Luzardo's hard-hit percentage, chase rate, and whiff rate are all in the 89th percentile.

That mismatch is why the Phillies are tight win-probability favorites amid just over $113,000 in trading volume. They sit at 53%, but were much higher at 57% shortly after the market opened.

My prediction: Phillies win. Opposing hitters have also been crushing Canning's fastball to the tune of a .692 slugging percentage.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Phillies vs. Padres?

Kyle Schwarber should be the favorite to hit a home run any night, and anywhere.

That's the case again here and it's not especially close, with the Phillies' lefty slugger sitting at a 25% chance of going deep, up from a low of 22.3% previously. His teammate Bryce Harper is far behind at 15%, as is Fernando Tatis Jr. while getting 11.5%.

Schwarber is taking his classic three-true outcome approach to its logical extreme this season. He leads MLB in home runs at 20, and he's recorded the second-most strikeouts with 78.

But the latter isn't as much of a concern against Canning, who's generating only a 22.9% chase rate. Schwarber's patience and plate discipline will play well, as will his power.

My prediction: Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run. Canning's barrel rate also sits in just the 11th percentile. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Phillies vs. Padres?

The Padres are MLB's best NRFI team at 34-18, largely due to their anemic 24th-ranked offense. They also boast a 17-12 NRFI record at home. 

The Phillies are much lower in the NRFI standings while sitting at 25-28 and in 20th. But with Luzardo performing far better than his surface-level metrics indicate and Philadelphia's 23rd-ranked offense also often sputtering, there's more reason to believe in a blank first frame tonight.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. The other looming factor here is the venue, with Petco Park ranking sixth-highest in terms of run suppression, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Phillies vs. Padres win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Padres

• Date: Monday, May 25
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Padres starter: Griffin Canning (0-2, 9.00 ERA)
• Phillies starter: Jesus Luzardo (3-4, 4.85 ERA)