⚾ Orioles vs. Royals Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, April 22

The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals have split two nail-biting games thus far, setting up a fascinating rubber match between two American League playoff hopefuls. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City is set for 2:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). The Royals are -135 betting favorites in a game with a starting pitching matchup between Chris Bassitt and Michael Wacha.

My Orioles vs. Royals prediction takes bullpens out of the equation and backs Kansas City to lead after five innings. That logic played into my top player prop wager with Bassitt, too.

⚾ Orioles vs. Royals picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.46 units

🏆 Who will win Orioles vs. Royals?

Kansas City had lost eight straight games entering Tuesday while being outscored 51-27 over that span and being shut out three times. Nevertheless, I expect the Royals to build off of yesterday's comeback victory and scratch out a series win, though it will likely happen in a pitcher’s duel.

Score prediction: Royals 4, Orioles 3

💰 Orioles vs. Royals prediction & best bet

Royals first five innings ML (-135)

After Seth Lugo’s one-hit gem in the series opener, Kansas City’s starting rotation ranked in the top 10 in ERA and BABIP. But its bullpen let it down again, blowing a 1-0 ninth-inning lead and raising its MLB-worst ERA among relievers to 6.37. 

Because of the bullpen issues, I'm limiting this play to the first five innings. Kansas City has cashed the first five innings moneyline in four of its last five home games, profiting bettors +4.0 units with a 47% ROI in that span.

🔥 Best Orioles vs. Royals player prop bet

Chris Bassitt Under 3.5 strikeouts (-118)

For as much as the Royals' offense has struggled (last in the American League in runs and slugging percentage and 26th in ISO), the team does a decent job putting the bat on the ball, ranking outside the top 10 in worst strikeout percentages. And Kansas City’s strikeout rate lowers somewhat from 23.5% overall to 22.9% when facing right-handed pitching,

Of the nine Orioles hurlers who have thrown a minimum of 10 innings this season, Chris Bassitt is the only one with a K/9 rate lower than 4.0. He sits at 3.94 K/9, while all but one of the other pitchers in that split are at 7.77 or better.

Bassitt has made four-plus starts against 25 MLB teams in his career, and his 6.6 K/9 rate against the Royals is his third-lowest in that split.

💣 Orioles vs. Royals home run prediction

Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+350)

Today’s two starting pitchers have allowed three home runs between them, but Pete Alonso is the only current player in either lineup who has homered off of the opposing hurler. Alonso has posted a 1.357 OPS in seven career at-bats against Wacha, and he's due for positive regression from a power standpoint after belting 34-plus home runs in six of seven seasons.

Alonso has only recorded two home runs this season, but his 56.1% hard-hit rate is on pace for a career-high. And his 29.8% fly ball rate is only slightly worse than his 30.1% rate from last year when he hit 38 home runs. 

🚀 Orioles vs. Royals same-game parlay

Since Pete Alonso's home run prop could negatively impact Kansas City's chances of leading after the first five innings, I'm swapping out that wager as the third leg of this same-game parlay in favor of a more pro-Royals bet. Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded at least one hit in 18 of 24 games this season, with more multi-hit games (seven) than hitless games (six).

Because the +286 odds for this parlay carry 25.91% implied odds, I am getting more aggressive and wagering a half-unit whereas I normally don't bet more than 0.1 units on a same-game parlay of three-plus legs.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Orioles vs. Royals: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

As usual, my top game prediction and player prop wager get a full unit of my bankroll, while I devote only 0.25 units to my home run wager.

The home run wagers have been hugely profitable thus far, compromising much of my +19.46 units of profit for the season even though my overall player prop record is 32-36. But since it's such an extremely volatile market, it's important to maintain a sound strategy and budget even when the profits are rolling in. 

We're getting great value while making our first five innings moneyline play at FanDuel, as other some of the other best sports betting sites are juiced as high as -160 (61.54%). I still prefer to take bullpens out of the equation while getting the relatively same price as the full game moneyline odds to back just the first five innings.

📊 Live Orioles vs. Royals odds

Compared to the first five innings moneyline odds that range much wider from -135 to -160, the full game odds are between -130 and -136 at the high end of the market. Baltimore is a popular underdog with 45% of the early betting support at DraftKings, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the line shade in its favor before first pitch. 

Caesars and bet365 are the only best MLB betting sites with an O/U of 9.0, while all others are at 9.5. BetMGM moved from 9.0 to 9.5, but it's likely trying to encourage Under bets, with the Under juiced high to -145. There's a near dead-even betting split (55/45 in favor of the Under) at DraftKings.

📈 Orioles vs. Royals betting trends

🚑 Orioles vs. Royals injuries

📺 How to watch Orioles vs. Royals

• Date: Wednesday, April 22
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Orioles starter: Chris Bassitt (0-2, 6.19 ERA)
• Royals starter: Michael Wacha (2-0, 1.00 ERA)