⚾ Guardians vs. Brewers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, June 17
RHP Gavin Williams and RHP Brandon Sproat face off today in the second game of a three-game series, and my Guardians vs. Brewers prediction breaks down why Cleveland is undervalued in this spot.
My MLB picks feature a bet on the moneyline, my favorite player prop, and an undervalued home run hitter. First pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee is set for 7:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV), with the Brewers listed as a -124 betting favorite.
⚾ Guardians vs. Brewers picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Guardians ML (+106 via FanDuel) | 1.89u → 2u | Sproat has allowed 3+ ER in 8 of his 11 starts. |
| Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 total bases (-106 via Caesars) | 1.59u → 1.5u | Hoskins has not recorded a hit in back-to-back games since May 31 and June 3. |
| Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 home runs (+499 via DraftKings) | 0.2u → 1u | Chourio struggles against offspeed pitching, but Williams mainly throws fastballs and breaking balls. |
Total wagered: 3.68 units | Max profit: 4.5 units
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🏆 Who will win Guardians vs. Brewers?
At +106, I like the Guardians to beat the Brewers 5-4. Sproat, frankly, just hasn't been great. Think about this: The Brewers are 44-26, but they're just 1-3 in his last four starts.
Score prediction: Guardians 5, Brewers 4
💰 Guardians vs. Brewers prediction & best bet
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Guardians ML (+106)
It's going to be hard for the Brewers to win when Sproat has allowed three or more earned runs in eight of his 11 starts. That includes giving up three earned runs on six hits on May 12 against the Padres, who rank last in MLB with a .216 batting average.
While Williams has allowed three earned runs in each of his last two starts, it's rare for him to put together three mediocre outings in a row. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his 14 starts.
📡 SBR Edge: Back Williams in a Bounce-Back Spot
The last time Williams gave up three-plus earned runs in back-to-back starts, he bounced back by recording three straight wins while allowing two or fewer earned runs in each outing.
🔥 Best Guardians vs. Brewers player prop bet
Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 total bases (-106)
Rhys Hoskins recorded a hit against his former team in Tuesday's series opener, and while that could be seen as a positive - some people like revenge angles - it isn't for Hoskins. He's batting just .186 on the season and hasn't recorded a hit in back-to-back games since May 31 and June 3 against the Red Sox and Yankees, respectively. Over a 57-game sample this season, he has recorded hits in consecutive games only eight times.
Hoskins' name still holds a little bit of weight after he hit 26-plus home runs in three consecutive seasons from 2021 to 2024, but the market is underestimating how much he has fallen off this year.
💣 Guardians vs. Brewers home run prediction
Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+499)
Jackson Chourio ranks 10th in MLB with a 10.7% barrels per plate appearance percentage, per Baseball Savant, and he has a favorable matchup today against Williams. The Guardians righty throws fastballs 48% of the time to right-handed hitters and breaking balls 40% of the time - and those are Chourio's best pitches to hit for power. He's slugging .573 with five home runs on fastballs and .500 with two home runs on breaking balls.
It doesn't hurt that he has homered in four of his last six games, either. Chourio to hit a home run (+499) is the best line available. However, if you don't have access to a DK account, there's still value in playing +490 at FanDuel.
⚾️ More MLB picks today
Our Dustin Saracini features a pair of bets for Rays vs. Dodgers in his best NRFI bets and strikeout props today.
🚀 Guardians vs. Brewers same-game parlay
Parlaying these three bets at Caesars pays +3550.
💵 Guardians vs. Brewers SGP picks
- Guardians ML
- Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 total bases
- Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 home runs
Best odds: +3550 via Caesars
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-3 | +0.8 units ✅ | 81.8% ✅ |
| Player props | 1-2 | +0.9 units ✅ | 102.5% ✅ |
| Parlays | 0-1 | -0.1 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
📊 Live Guardians vs. Brewers odds
For checking odds movement, we're going to focus on sharp books that don't limit/ban bettors. The Brewers opened as a -120 favorite at Circa and have since been bet up to -122. Over at Pinnacle, the Brewers opened as a -118 favorite and have been bet up to -119. As of the time of publication, Pinny is taking $10,000 a hit on the moneyline.
🤑 Guardians vs. Brewers betting splits
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Bet type | Bet % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|
| Guardians ML (+105) | 62% | 76% |
| Brewers ML (-125) | 38% | 24% |
| Guardians +1.5 (-210) | 32% | 10% |
| Brewers -1.5 (+170) | 68% | 90% |
| Over 7.5 (-110) | 50% | 32% |
| Under 7.5 (-110) | 50% | 68% |
📈 Guardians vs. Brewers betting trends
| Guardians | Statistic | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| 39-34 | W-L record | 44-26 |
| 39-34 | Run line record | 40-30 |
| 35-38 | O/U record | 32-37-1 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 3.73 | Team ERA | 3.41 |
| .231 | Team batting avg. | .254 |
| .685 | OPS | .733 |
🚑 Guardians vs. Brewers injuries
📺 How to watch Guardians vs. Brewers
- Date: Wednesday, June 17
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: American Family Field (Milwaukee)
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
- Guardians starter: Gavin Williams (9-3, 3.32 ERA)
- Brewers starter: Brandon Sproat (1-4, 5.70 ERA)
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