⚾ White Sox vs. Yankees Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 17)

The New York Yankees are in steamrolling mode, and it's up to the surprising Chicago White Sox to halt them.

Chicago, which sits third in the American League, faces a steep hill tonight, as the White Sox vs. Yankees win probability from the prediction market apps shows New York as a sizable favorite. The Yankees, who demolished Chicago 12-2 last night in the series opener, are getting a 62% win probability.

The most compelling market tied to the game is centered around the opening inning, with the Yankees showing a recent weakness then despite their winning and a plus-117 run differential.

➡️ Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for the 2026 season.

🏆 Who will win White Sox vs. Yankees? Live MLB win probability

There's been a notable slant from the beginning in this market, with the Yankees opening as the 60% favorites amid $233,000 in trading. That's moved up to 62% now following New York's resounding win last night.

The American League-leading Yankees are averaging 6.5 runs over their last eight games, seven of which have ended in a victory. Please remember all that's happening without Aaron Judge, and it's being made possible through the mashing of Ben Rice, who sits second MLB-wide with his 1.006 OPS, and the late-career renaissance of Paul Goldschmidt, who's blasted off for a 1.056 OPS in June.

Between Rice, Goldschmidt, and Cody Bellinger, the Yankees' core features three sluggers with an expected slugging percentage of .460 or higher. They'll take that against Anthony Kay, who's sitting on a pedestrian K/9 of 7.2, and his oft-utilized sinker is getting tattooed for a .300 batting average and .517 slugging.

My prediction: Yankees win. They'll roll with Carlos Rodon to start, and although he does struggle with walks at times, the lefty is his usual high-strikout self with a 9.9 K/9.

💣 Who will hit a home run in White Sox vs. Yankees?

At first it looks strange to see just one option listed in this market. And then suddenly it makes sense.

The matchup for the Yankees' mashing lefty is so appealing that it's either him or bust at a 15% probability of going yard.

Bellinger will spend much of his evening against Kay. He's a southpaw, but Bellinger doesn't struggle against same-sided pitching. In fact, his slugging percentage of .476 when facing a lefty is marginally better than when opposing a righty (.463).

More critically for tonight, Bellinger is a behemoth when taking his swings at home given the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium. He boasts a 1.151 OPS while enjoying the comforts of home, and a just a .593 on the road.

My prediction: Cody Bellinger to hit a home run. The most significant factor in his favor tonight is a love for nailing breaking pitches. Bellinger is slugging .623 against those offerings, and Kay only throws his fastball 17% of the time to lefties. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our my best home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of White Sox vs. Yankees?

This market has been moving substantially today, catapulting to a peak of 50.5% after beginning the day at 45%.

That will happen after a combined 14 runs during yesterday's drubbing, 12 of which came from the Yankees. They didn't score in the opening inning, but the White Sox did. Now there's been four first-inning runs across New York's last four games, all of which have come from the opposition.

It's an oddity amid the Yankees winning a whole lot, and a first-inning hole is certainly possible again tonight with Rodon on the mound given his command issues. He sports a ballooning BB/9 of 5.5 across Rodon's first six starts this season and 31 innings. The White Sox have also put up the league's third-best OPS against lefties.

Combine that with Kay sure to regress since his expected ERA of 5.64 rests far higher than his actual mark of 4.34, and it's easy to envision early fireworks.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. These two teams rank among the better YRFI squads leaguewide, with New York 10th at 38-33, and the White Sox fourth at 42-29. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 White Sox vs. Yankees win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch White Sox vs. Yankees

• Date: Wednesday, June 17
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (New York)
• TV: Prime Video
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• White Sox starter: Anthony Kay (6-1, 4.34 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Carlos Rodon (2-2, 3.19 ERA)