⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Wednesday, June 17
My recent success continued last night when the Pirates' Brandon Lowe went deep, and now we're turning to one of his also hot teammates to keep rolling today.
That's Bryan Reynolds, who's featured in my home run predictions today while in an ideal matchup against the Cubs' Javier Assad. But the soaring Hunter Goodman leads the way as his torrid June continues.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 17
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Goodman home run (+305 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.61u | A rising slugger who feasts on sinkers is facing a sinkerballer? Sign me up. |
| Bryan Reynolds home run (+430 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.86u | Has clubbed three homers in as many games. |
| Wilyer Abreu home run (+327 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.65u | Happy Max Scherzer dinger day to all who celebrate! |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.12 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+305)
Hunter Goodman simply doesn't stop. He sits tied for fourth leaguewide on 20 home runs, and a slugglish May is far behind him. He posted a .647 OPS then, and now into the third week of June his OPS for the month rests at 1.131, which includes seven dingers.
Much of his success has come from demolishing breaking balls. Especially sinkers and sliders, which he's slugging .800 and .738 against, respectively. He's a nightmare for Assad of the Cubs, who gives up plenty of hard contact and throws his sinker a whopping 63% of the time to right-handed hitters.
📡 SBR Edge: Getting airborne
Sure, the thin mountain air in Colorado often helps with the distance. But Goodman is still the one making the quality contact, and his pull rate in the air is an astounding and career-best 32.9% this season.
π₯ More home run picks today
Bryan Reynolds to hit a home run (+430)
There are some encouraging similarities to Goodman here. First, Reynolds is also scalding-hot lately, with a 1.254 OPS over the past week, including three long balls.
But I'm not just riding the hot bat here. Again like Goodman, Reynolds excels when facing a sinker, as he's put up a .423 batting average and .577 slugging percentage against that pitch. Even more impressively, he's hammering sinkers to the tune of a 69.6% hard-hit rate.
The switch-hitter will face the Athletics' Aaron Civale from the left side tonight. Civale is giving up a whole lot of thunderous contact while posting a 47.9% hard-hit rate allowed (seventh percentile). He throws his sinker 19% of the time to lefties, and it's getting pummeled for an .805 slugging.
🤑 More MLB props
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today and best strikeout props today.
Wilyer Abreu to hit a home run (+327)
The wheels aren't just off Max Scherzer now. He's spun off the highway, into the forest, and the car has disintegrated. The soon-to-be 42-year-old is getting lambasted, and home run bettors need to take advantage.
Scherzer's HR/9 sits at an astronomical 3.7 after allowing nine round-trippers across just six starts and 22 innings. His ERA is a grotesque 10.23, which happens when your barrel rate is in the fourth percentile, and opponents are slugging .600 and .741 against a hurler's top two pitches (a fastball and slider).
Scherzer's struggles run even deeper against lefties, as he's giving up a 1.067 OPS. Go with one today in Wilyer Abreu, who's slugging .512 against sliders.
π Best home run parlay picks today
A pair in our trio today, Goodman and Reynolds, have been on fire lately, and they're in ideal matchups to erupt again.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Hunter Goodman home run (+305)
- Bryan Reynolds home run (+386)
- Wilyer Abreu home run (+327)
Best odds: +8572 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.71u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 43-130-2 | -3.27 units β | -5.0% β |
| Home run picks | 25-89-0 | -1.33 units β | -5.54% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-28 | 0.76 units β | 1.31% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I rarely deviate from my typical unit size in this market, but go ahead and put a little more toward Goodman tonight if you're feeling frisky.
Beyond his effectiveness against sinkers, Goodman also boasts a 56% hard-hit rate against sliders, and a 59.1 against four-seamers.
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