⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for June 16, 2026
I've now tallied six home run hits over the past week, including a three-leg parlay and my best bet hitting yesterday when Mike Trout went deep.
The fun can end fast in this volatile market, but I'll look to keep the ride going in my home run predictions today while leaning on Matt Olson, Brandon Lowe, and Cal Raleigh.
All three are getting quality matchups for my MLB home run picks, and especially Olson, who's tied for fourth leaguewide on 20 homers.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 16
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson home run (+352 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.70u | Adrian Houser will surely try to get Olson out with his sinker, and good luck. |
| Brandon Lowe home run (+324 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.65u | Is well-positioned today to hunt heat, which is what he does best. |
| Cal Raleigh home run (+248 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.50u | Brandon Young can't stave off regression much longer. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 1.85 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Matt Olson to hit a home run (+352)
Olson boasts a 1.114 OPS over the past week, a stretch when he's clubbed three long balls. There are few cheap dingers from him either, as his contact is continually thunderous, with an average exit velocity of 93.5 mph that sits in the 96th percentile and 14th overall leaguewide.
He'll take that tonight against the San Francisco Giants' Adrian Houser, a sinkerball pitcher who's been enduring immense struggles against lefties. That's the worst combination against Olson. He's slugging .647 against sinkers, and the first baseman will be up against a hurler allowing a 1.022 OPS to lefties.
📡 SBR Edge: Pulling with power
There are plenty of reasons for Olson's success, but one is that he's pulling the ball in the air more this season. His air pull rate sat at 16.1% last year, according to Baseball Savant, and it's risen to 20.6% now.
π₯ More home run picks today
Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+324)
A healthy Brandon Lowe comes with significant homer potential, and we're seeing that now as his OPS shoots up from .785 to .829.
Much of his success has come from a tried and true method of the modern game: Handling high velocity well and depositing fastballs into the seats far away.
A thirst for annihilating four-seamers sets him up beautifully tonight. Lowe is registering a .762 slugging percentage against that pitch, and he'll face a righty in the Athletics' Jack Perkins who throws his heater 38% of the time to lefties.
Perkins will be making just his seventh career start, and it's been a bumpy road lately. He's allowed eight earned runs and three homers across his last two outings.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Cal Raleigh to hit a home run (+248)
Raleigh is set to return tonight following a one-month absence due to an oblique issue. However, it's difficult to resist him given the juicy matchup.
He'll face the Orioles' Brandon Young, and a trip to regression island is surely coming for him soon. Young posted a 6.24 ERA last year, and on the surface, he's improved notably to 3.04 now. However, his expected ERA is significantly higher at 4.39, largely because of an 18th percentile hard-hit rate allowed.
Young primarily throws a fastball and splitter, and the average exit velocity on both sits around 90 mph.
π Best home run parlay picks today
Between the two lefty hitters and the switch-hitter in Raleigh, I'm once again rolling with plenty of power from that side. Olson is the best suited to capitalize on a matchup against a pitcher who struggles when facing left-handed hitters.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Matt Olson home run (+352)
- Brandon Lowe home run (+324)
- Cal Raleigh home run (+248)
Best odds: +6569 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.31u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 40-127-2 | -5.35 units β | -8.7% β |
| Home run picks | 24-87-0 | -1.58 units β | -6.75% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-28 | 0.76 units β | 1.31% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
More caution and perhaps a lighter sprinkle even by the standards of this market is warranted with Raleigh given both his injury absence, and that he was struggling to return to last year's form prior to the IL stint. I'll still stick with my standard low-risk play, but use your own judgment accordingly through bankroll management.
Elsewhere and on the opposite end, Olson doesn't creep past +350 odds often anymore at the best MLB betting sites. That makes it a fine time to invest a little more, especially given the appealing outlook tonight.
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