Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 10
The New York Mets are aiming to avoid a third straight loss against the Philadelphia Phillies, but they've been enjoying success against Philly’s starting pitcher this season, which I’m hoping will continue as I make my Mets vs. Phillies prediction.
First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET (SNY, NBCSP) on Wednesday night from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
My MLB picks believe Mets star shortstop Francisco Lindor is in a nice position to put together a strong game, and I’m throwing my support behind the Over on one of his player props.
⚾ Mets vs. Phillies expert picks & predictions
MLB expert picks odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Mets (+140 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Mets +1.5 (-145 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-102 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Mets vs. Phillies preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🍎 Mets to win (+140) ⭐⭐⭐
The Mets lost the first two games of the series while scoring just four runs in 18 innings. The NL East is all but out of reach as New York tries to solidify its wild-card aspirations.
New York has had Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez’s number in two meetings this season. The Mets have been decent overall against left-handed pitching in 2025, and they've put up eight runs on 12 hits across 7 1/3 innings against Sanchez. The resulting 9.82 ERA against New York is Sanchez’s worst when facing any opponent this season.
I understand why the Mets are such heavy underdogs, but I’m willing to grab that value against a pitcher they've been teeing off against.
BetMGM is offering +140 odds on the Mets to win, which nets out to a profit of $14 on a $10 bet. The +140 odds come with an implied probability of 41.67%.
💰 Best Mets vs. Phillies player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-105) ⭐⭐⭐
Lindor has been enjoying hitting against Sanchez during his career, with five hits across 14 at-bats (.357 average). The 31-year-old has also logged a pair of home runs and four RBIs in five games at Citizens Bank Park during 2025.
The Phillies’ home stadium has been the fifth-friendliest venue for home runs and 10th-best for scoring runs this season, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors leaderboard.
A $10 wager on Lindor’s Over would lead to a profit of $9.52 at BetMGM. The -105 odds are getting an implied probability of 51.22%.
Elsewhere, our Gabe Henderson believes Kyle Schwarber will do some damage for the Phillies in his best home run predictions today.
📊 Mets vs. Phillies odds: Sept. 10
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Mets vs. Phillies betting odds analysis
Philadelphia opened as high as the -188 favorites in the Mets vs. Phillies odds, with some of the best sports betting sites offering them as low as -165 on Wednesday morning.
🔢 Mets vs. Phillies stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Mets (76-69) | Statistic (per game) | Phillies (85-60) |
| 4.74 | Runs | 4.77 |
| 8.41 | Hits | 8.80 |
| .250 | AVG | .259 |
| .429 | SLG | .426 |
| .758 | OPS | .755 |
| 3.95 | ERA | 3.79 |
| 8.75 | K/9 | 9.23 |
| 3.61 | BB/9 | 2.77 |
| 0.90 | HR/9 | 1.07 |
🚑 Mets vs. Phillies injuries
📺 Mets vs. Phillies game info
- When: Wednesday, September, 10
- Kickoff: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
- How to watch: SNY, NBCSP
💡 Expert MLB predictions today
- MLB home run predictions today
- Brewers vs. Rangers prediction
- Mets vs. Phillies prediction
- Tigers vs. Yankees prediction
- Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction
❓ Mets vs. Phillies FAQs
Who is favored to win Mets vs. Phillies ?
The Phillies are -172 favorites to defeat the Mets at home on Wednesday.
What is the run line for Mets vs. Phillies?
Philadelphia is a -1.5 run line favorite at the best sports betting apps against New York in Wednesday’s matchup.
What is the Over/Under for Mets vs. Phillies?
The total for Wednesday’s game between the Mets and Phillies is 8.
What are the best bets for Mets vs. Phillies?
My best bets for Wednesday’s Mets vs. Phillies game are New York to win (+140) and Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-105).
When is the Mets vs. Phillies game?
First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
