Our Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction is based on the top MLB odds as we look to start the 2023 MLB postseason with a betting win.
Two National League East rivals collide in the opener of the wild-card series Tuesday evening.
The Miami Marlins secured their fourth playoff berth in franchise history by winning 84 games, marking their first postseason appearance in a 162-game season since 2003. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Phillies secured the NL's top wild-card spot with 90 victories. They aim to replicate their 2022 journey to a World Series appearance from a similar position.
Miami won seven of its 13 regular-season meetings against Philadelphia. Both teams face long World Series odds.
Here is our best Marlins-Phillies prediction (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Marlins vs. Phillies prediction: Wild Card Game 1
Marlins +1.5 (-150 via FanDuel, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Phillies went 5-0 at home during the 2022 NLDS and NLCS, including four two-plus run triumphs. And while five of their six wins against the Marlins were of the multi-run variety in 2023, Miami still took the head-to-head season series. The Marlins were playing much more meaningful baseball down the stretch, while Philadelphia was coasting to the No. 4 seed in the NL playoffs.
Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo is built to negate Philadelphia's biggest strength offensively from the second half of the season. The Phillies hit 105 home runs throughout August and September (tied for the major-league lead), but Luzardo has given up just one dinger during his previous 34 innings. The lefty's swing-and-miss stuff has been electric lately, as he's recorded eight-plus strikeouts in three of his last six starts. He should be dialed in against a Phillies lineup that's produced the NL's worst strikeout rate (24.9%) at home against southpaws in 2023.
On the other side, Phillies righty Zack Wheeler hasn't lost in seven consecutive outings, and each of his three appearances against Miami in 2023 ended with a quality start. However, the Marlins averaged five runs per game over their final 15 contests while ranking second in the majors in BABIP (.348) during that span. They should be able to challenge Wheeler early before turning this game into a battle of bullpens, especially since Luzardo has held current Phillies hitters to a combined .211/.256/.346 over 76 at-bats.
Philadelphia has trailed after five innings in six of its last nine home games (-3.33 units to the first-five moneyline, -23% ROI), and Miami has covered the run line in 53.3% of its games as underdogs in 2023.
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Marlins vs. Phillies best odds
There's little variance on the +1.5 run-line odds among our best sports betting sites, with a $5 difference separating the market's low and high ends.
Though it matched Caesars at the lowest price for Marlins run-line backers, bet365 also offers the best moneyline odds (+145). That makes it the top value option for those who expect the underdogs to win outright.
Marlins vs. Phillies odds
Marlins vs. Phillies odds analysis
BetMGM is posting the shortest moneyline odds for Miami at +135, with bet365 the longest at +145. Any line movement to this point has gone in Philadelphia's favor, as Miami has moved from +138 to +142 at FanDuel and +136 to +140 through DraftKings. Early moneyline wagers are 68% in favor of the Phillies.
Marlins vs. Phillies game info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 3, at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 60 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 3-mph southwest
Marlins-Phillies prediction made 10/2/2023 at 6:27 a.m. ET.
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