Guardians vs. Mets Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Will Holmes’ Decline Continue?

The Cleveland Guardians offer a tasty underdog in today's matchup against the New York Mets, and here's why.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 5, 2025 4:57 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Guardians vs. Mets Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Tuesday, Aug. 5 — Pictured: New York Mets pitcher Clay Holmes throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants as we offer our Guardians vs. Mets Prediction. Sergio Estrada via Imagn Images

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After needing extra innings to decide the series opener, the Cleveland Guardians and New York Mets meet again at Citi Field, with first pitch from Queens set for tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Our Guardians vs. Mets prediction doesn't agree with New York receiving odds as high as -200 moneyline at our best sports betting sites.

With New York sending arguably its most out-of-sorts starting pitcher to the mound, we are backing Cleveland’s best hitter with our Guardians vs. Mets best bets.

Guardians vs. Mets prediction: Guardians to win (+165 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Best Guardians vs. Mets player props: Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 RBIs (+175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

⚾ Guardians vs. Mets prediction & odds

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💰 Guardians vs. Mets prediction & best bet

✅ Guardians vs. Mets prediction: Guardians to win (+165 via BetMGM)

New York righty Clay Holmes appears to be struggling with the recent abundance of innings, which has us backing Cleveland with my Guardians vs. Mets prediction.

Holmes recorded a season-low 17 outs in his last start against the San Diego Padres and still allowed 10 baserunners, with eight hits against tying his second-most this season.

Holmes followed up an impressive June, where he pitched to a 2.93 ERA, with a 4.91 ERA in six July starts. New York went 2-4 in that stretch and is 3-6 in its last nine games when Holmes toed the rubber, so these are great odds for my Guardians vs. Mets best bet.

This moneyline play on the underdog comes with three stars of confidence, as the Mets cannot seem to get a clutch hit, owning the second-worst batting average with runners in scoring position in the National League.

Guardians backers will find the best value at BetMGM, the only of our best sports betting apps offering odds better than +162.

💰 Best Guardians vs. Mets player props

✅ Best Guardians vs. Mets player prop: Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 RBIs (+175 via DraftKings)

Ramirez has a slightly worse hitting split facing right-handed starting pitchers, but he has been red-hot at the plate and is the focal point of our Guardians vs. Mets player props.

Entering yesterday’s series opener, Ramirez was batting .353 with four home runs, nine RBIs, and 14 runs in his last 13 games. Going back further, he had a 1.147 OPS, scoring 27 runs and driving in 22 runs in the prior 23 games.

Ramirez’s batting average and OPS are 60 and 62 points lower, respectively, against right-handed pitchers than against southpaws. But 28 of his 61 RBIs have come away from home, providing consistency wherever he bats.

There is a massive difference from DraftKings' +175 to the rest of our best sportsbooks, which are as low as +150 (carrying a 40% implied probability) for Ramirez to drive in a run.

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Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

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The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

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The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”