⚾ Cy Young Odds, Picks & Predictions: Can Yamamoto Challenge Skenes?

The Cy Young odds and picks for 2026 tell the pitching tale that's likely set to unfold when a new season begins on March 25.

It's one about two kings defending their thrones, which is especially true in the American League, where a certain member of this generation's pitching royalty will be looking to make history.

But is there a formidable challenger in the Cy Young odds in either league capable of pushing the kings aside?

👑 Cy Young odds and picks: Who can dethrone the kings?

Tarik Skubal is the lead horse in a now imposing rotation for a Detroit Tigers team that sits high in the MLB playoff odds again after making it to the ALDS last year.

As was the case a year ago when he was getting tiny +210 preseason odds, the best MLB betting sites are favoring Skubal to repeat. But Garrett Crochet finished second in Cy Young voting during only his second season logging 30-plus starts. Can he get one notch higher now?

Crochet sits at +425 in the Cy Young odds, just a fingernail behind Skubal at +400 before a cavernous gap to Hunter Brown at +1300. There's the expectation of a two-horse battle to the finish, and the same is true in the National League.

There's where Paul Skenes roams, and he's not just a gas-throwing behemoth. Yes, he is that, but what makes Skenes special is his pinpoint accuracy with all his pitches, which creates nearly unmatched deception.

Watching that makes it difficult to imagine how any MLB hitter makes contact against Skenes, let alone does so with authority.

But you get the same feeling often when watching Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was a machine for the Los Angeles Dodgers during the World Series this past fall while pitching 17 2/3 innings and allowing just two earned runs with 15 strikeouts.

He's soaring just as quickly as Crochet. Now he'll be trying to prevent Skenes from going on a Skubal-like run.

As the odds show, the gap between Skenes and Yamamoto in the NL is also miniscule, while the distance between second and third on the oddsboard is colossal. Who holds the edge if the expected two-hurler races develop?

📊 2026 Cy Young odds

Many of the primary contenders play key roles on teams high up in the World Series odds.

🔢 American League Cy Young odds

🔢 National League Cy Young odds

⚾ National League: Skenes vs. Yamamoto

Following along this season with our MLB picks based on the MLB odds.

🥊 Tale of the tape

It's not a coincidence that the two ERA leaders MLB-wide last year won the Cy Young in their respective leagues, with Skenes sitting atop that mountain as the only one below 2.00.

But Yamamoto wasn't far behind Skenes and Skubal in fourth, and his comparably worse output next to Skenes can in part be traced back to one very uncharacteristic outing in early July. That's when the star hurler was yanked after getting just two outs and allowing three earned runs.

There were some other bumpy outings, but that's the true oddity of his season. Cast it aside, and there was an incredible 18 starts when Yamamoto gave up one run or fewer last year, including 11 shutouts.

🔮 National League Cy Young prediction: Yamamoto rises up

Admittedly, finding separation between Yamamoto and Skenes can be like trying to decide what you want for dinner between pizza and wings. You want both at the same time, all the time.

Skenes remains terrifying due to his combination of flame-throwing and an arsenal that creates dizzying deception. But although he may not quite be on Skenes' level in terms of sheer power because few pitchers are right now, Yamamoto doesn't lack for velocity while sitting at a 95.3 mph average on his fastball last year, according to Baseball Savant.

The divide, and perhaps the eventual advantage for Yamamoto in a race with razor-thin margins, lies in the groundball rate induced, primarily through his borderline unhittable pitch mix.

Strikeouts pay the bills and minimize the potential for baseball weirdness to happen through fielding errors or when a ball trickles through a hole. But those weak dribblers can lead to efficiency, and getting more outs with less exertion.

That's where Yamamoto thrives, as his groundball rate during the righty's first full healthy MLB season last year finished at 53.7%, putting him in the 91st percentile leaguewide. Meanwhile, Skenes was at 44.6% and only a little above league average.

Yamamoto's success in that regard is largely due to a lethal splitter that opponents batted just .132 against last year. Combine that with his still threatening velocity, and it's easy to see more hardware in his future behind being last year's World Series MVP.

Best odds: +550 via FanDuel

⚾ American League: Skubal vs. Crochet

These star pitchers are MLB MVP odds long-shot candidates, too.

🥊 Tale of the tape

There's been a few periods of Cy Young dominance from one pitcher on the National League side, most recently Randy Johnson taking it a bonkers four straight times from 1999 to 2002 with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

But we've never seen more than two consecutively to one pitcher in the American League since giving one award per league began in 1967. Skubal could be the first after taking it two straight years. But as superhuman as he seems, is there a workload concern at some point?

Like Skenes, Skubal thrives off his nearly untouchable fastball, which contributed significantly to his average exit velocity allowed that sat in the top 3% leaguewide last year. But including the postseason, he's logged 426 1/3 innings across the past two campaigns.

He's stayed mostly healthy during those two 190-plus inning seasons. But arm fatigue that led to surgery cost him good chunks of the 2022 and 2023 seasons in the not-so distant past.

🔮 American League Cy Young prediction: Crochet sets the standard

Crochet doesn't have a clean injury history either while also missing much of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. But there isn't the same mileage on his arm after a slower ramp-up post-injury in 2024.

Similar to the Yamamoto vs. Skenes matchup, we see a difference in groundball rate here, which will help Crochet to keep his high-stress innings lower. He sat at 49.3% last year, mostly due to a sweeper that opponents hit .126 against. Meanwhile, Skubal posted a more pedestrian 41.6%.

If the divide remains thin in every sense too, Crochet could earn more admiration from voters while doing his dominating in the AL East, a division filled with offensive juggernauts.

Best odds: +425 via DraftKings

💰 MLB Cy Young best bets

Need baseball sooner than Opening Day? Our World Baseball Classic odds have you covered.

📜 AL Cy Young betting history

📜 NL Cy Young betting history