⚾ Cubs vs. Phillies Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 13)

There are some similarities between the two NL beasts that will square off tonight in Philadelphia, but one key factor will be the difference in the Cubs vs. Phillies win probability

It's Cristopher Sanchez, who has started the season off in his usual Cy Young form. He's a major reason why the prediction market apps are slanted notably toward the home side ahead of first pitch tonight at 6:40 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park (FS1).

But as often untouchable as Sanchez has been, he'll face a hurler in Javier Assad who's dazzled too in brief stints when healthy.

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🏆 Who will win Cubs vs. Phillies? Live MLB win probability

There's been a dramatic swing in this market since it opened three days ago. The Cubs were receiving a significantly higher win probability to start while getting a 72% chance to emerge victorious.

Now their chances have been plummeting fast amid nearly $71,000 in trading volume, with the Cubs down to 38%. That's no doubt tied to the team's recent mini slide, and a series loss over the weekend to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cubs' offense finally awoke from its slumber during the final game of that series while winning 7-6, but the team scored just three runs across the first two games, which included a shutout loss.

Meanwhile, the Phillies' bats are sputtering too, and even worse. The team has dropped five of its last seven contests while averaging just 2.6 runs scored. So at first the wild probability swing here is a little perplexing, but it's no doubt due to the presence of Sanchez on the mound for Philadelphia.

The early Cy Young odds contender, who sits only narrowly behind Pirates ace Paul Skenes, has been sparkling while mowing down batters en route to a 12.7 K/9. That's largely coming from his lethal changeup, with opponents posting an expected slugging of just .121 against that offering, according to Baseball Savant.

However, Assad has been impressive early too, with an expected ERA of 1.65 that rests in the top 3% leaguewide. The market could awaken to his brilliance as first pitch draws near, leading to the probability gap tightening.

My prediction: Phillies win. Sanchez is too much in the end, though I wouldn't be nearly as confident as the current probabilities indicate given Assad's effectiveness too. We're in for a tight pitcher's duel.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Cubs vs. Phillies?

Kyle Schwarber is getting easily the highest probability to go deep at 28% in a market with just over $4,500 in trading volume.

Both the lefty slugger and his Phillies teammates dominate the market, as clobbering anything with authority is a tough ask for the Cubs against Sanchez. He hasn't allowed a home run yet this season, and the southpaw surrendered a mere 12 last year across 202 innings. It was his second straight campaign with a 0.5 HR/9.

Meanwhile, Assad has been productive when healthy, though he missed much of last year and registered only 37 innings. But plenty of balls will be in play off a righty with only a career 7.3 K/9.

Bryce Harper is behind Schwarber at 20%, with Trea Turner third at 11%. Alex Bregman leads among Cubs batters at 11%, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is behind him at 9%. They're part of a Cubs offense looking for power while posting a pedestrian .678 OPS thus far (17th).

The Citizens Bank Park effect can't be ignored for all involved here. It's historically been a highly homer-friendly venue, including last year when there were 15% more dingers than the league average at the Phillies' home field, according to Statecast's Ballpark Factors.

My prediction: Bryce Harper to hit a home run. Harper might be past his prime, but he's surging early this season with three homers and eight extra-base hits, all leading to a .902 OPS. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Andrew Brennan.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Cubs vs. Phillies?

The chances of a run being scored in the first inning started out more favorable at 51% before plunging to as low as 44.5%. There's been a slight rebound since then, but the probability in a market with just over $5,000 in trading volume still rests at 46%, notably lower than where it started.

That's surely tied to the mostly scuffling ways of both offenses recently, and especially the Phillies as they sit 28th MLB-wide in scoring early. Of course, there's also Sanchez's impact, with Philadelphia's ace giving up a mere three earned runs overall thus far across 16 1/3 innings, though one did come in the first frame during his last start.

Assad has just logged one start, and it was a shutout over 5 2/3 innings. Due to both the quality of Chicago's pitching (sixth-best team ERA) and inconsistent offense, Assad plays for a club with the league's third-best NRFI record at 11-4. The Phillies hold MLB's second-worst mark at 5-10, though Sanchez can easily be the equalizer in that regard.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Good luck getting any lift off Sanchez, who produced a 58.5% groundball rate last year.

📊 Cubs vs. Phillies win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Phillies

• Date: Monday, April 13
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cubs starter: Javier Assad (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Phillies starter: Cristopher Sanchez (1-1, 1.65 ERA)