⚾ Rays vs. Pirates Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, April 18

The Tampa Bay Rays are in for a tough task if they want to get back to the winning ways that saw them enter the weekend with a six-game winning streak, as they face the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner and Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes. The Rays send out the red-hot Drew Rasmussen to oppose him, with first pitch from PNC Park in Pittsburgh scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Pirates are a -165 betting favorite in this matchup of first-place teams.

My Rays vs. Pirates prediction call for a pitcher's duel from two outstanding right-handed hurlers. But I also add my first stolen bases prop of the season to my MLB picks, while finding value on a Pittsburgh slugger's home run odds.

⚾ Rays vs. Pirates picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 5.56 units

🏆 Who will win Rays vs. Pirates?

Now that Paul Skenes is getting run support, wins have come much easier. Pittsburgh has out-scored its opponents 31-9 in his last three starts while winning all three, and the righty should lead the Pirates to victory again.

Score prediction: Pirates 3, Rays 2

💰 Rays vs. Pirates prediction & best bet

First five innings Under 3.5 (-110)

Skenes is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA over 17 1/3 innings pitched in his last three starts. He has also held opponents to a .105 average and .419 OPS. 

Home dominance is nothing new for Skenes, as he has now pitched to a 1.02 ERA in his last 13 home starts, while opponents have hit .169 over that span.

Meanwhile, Rays righty Drew Rasmussen is coming off a dominant outing where he retired 18 of the 19 Yankees he faced, and lowered his ERA to 1.03 in eight career appearances against the Bronx Bombers. 

🔥 Best Rays vs. Pirates player prop bet

Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 stolen bases (+270)

Knowing that runs will be at a premium with Skenes on the mound, I expect Tampa Bay to be aggressive on the basepaths whenever its runners reach. 

Chandler Simpson recently had a 16-game on-base streak and nine-game hitting streak, and he entered the weekend with the fourth-highest batting average in the league (.348) despite going 0-for-10 in his previous two games.

Simpson stole 44 bases in 109 games last season, and his 29.6 feet per second foot speed ranked in the 97th percentile among qualified players in 2025. Per Statcast, his plus-7 baserunning value ranked him in the top 3% of qualified runners.

Simpson has swiped at least one bag in four of 10 games, and I expect manager Kevin Cash to give his speedster the green light whenever he reaches base.

💣 Rays vs. Pirates home run prediction

Ryan O'Hearn to hit a home run (+780)

With Skenes on the mound who led the league with a 0.5 HR/9 rate allowed last year, I was always going to look for a Pirates slugger for my home run pick. 

Prior to pinch hitting in the series finale loss to the Nationals, Ryan O’Hearn turned in his sixth multi-hit game of the season, while only three NL players had a higher batting average.

O’Hearn has familiarity with Rasmussen from his days in the AL East, going 1-for-3 in a small sample size. While the righty has a minuscule ERA to this point, he is also on pace for the worst fly-ball rate (29.3%) and the second-worst hard-hit rate allowed of his career. 

🚀 Rays vs. Pirates same-game parlay

Since I expect a low-scoring game, especially early, it didn't make sense for me to include my O'Hearn home run play as part of this same-game parlay. But even though I expect Simpson to steal a base and O'Hearn to record a hit of any kind, those two plays don't necessarily contradict my belief that both starting pitchers will match zeros early.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing a Rasmussen or Skenes prop that fits this narrative better, as long as it adds value to the SGP.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Rays vs. Pirates: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Chandler Simpson is one of the few players in the league I'd ever wager on to steal a base. That's not just because he has blazing speed, but because Tampa Bay is one of the lone "small ball" teams that leads the majors in sacrifice bunts and was one of five teams with 22-plus stolen bases.

I thought about limiting the stolen base wager to a half-unit and splitting a normal one-unit play between that and a pitcher prop. Even though Skenes became the first Pirates pitcher in the modern era with 400 strikeouts in his first 59 career starts, the Rays can be a pesky lineup, so I'd temper expectations for the righty's strikeouts as just one example. 

📊 Live Rays vs. Pirates odds

Pittsburgh's moneyline odds range from -165 to -174. Even though DraftKings is on the higher end of the market at -171, it is attracting 81% of the moneyline bets on the Pirates, which suggests this number is likely to increase throughout the day.

The best sports betting sites are in unison with an O/U of 7.0 runs, with the Under as high as +105 (carrying a 48.78% implied probability) at BetMGM. The early betting splits are 60/40 to the Over, even with Skenes on the mound, but I'd expect the O/U to remain frozen at 7.0, as sportsbooks would likely be inundated with Under bets if they ever moved to 7.5.

📈 Rays vs. Pirates betting trends

🚑 Rays vs. Pirates injuries

📺 How to watch Rays vs. Pirates

• Date: Saturday, April 18
• First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: PNC Park (Pittsburgh)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Rays starter: Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 1.13 ERA)
• Pirates starter: Paul Skenes (3-1, 4.00 ERA)