⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Saturday, April 18
Both of the reigning Cy Young Award winners toe the rubber today as well as several other Opening Day starters, which could make it more difficult to find sluggers to hit home runs. But for every tough pitching slate, we get a tasty matchup like the team with the most home runs in the league (Los Angeles Dodgers) playing in the most home-run happy environment (Coors Field).
My home run predictions today are heavily invested in National League players, two of whom are playing in American League ballparks. The only one of my MLB home run picks who is playing at home is Chicago Cubs slugger Nico Hoerner, who looks to take advantage of favorable weather conditions at Wrigley Field and homer for the second straight day.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 18
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner to hit a home run (+1480 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 3.7u | Hoerner's fly ball and pull air rates are off the charts compared to 2019-24 |
| Andy Pages to hit a home run (+590 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.48u | Pages continues to quietly shine amid L.A.'s star-studded lineup |
| Manny Machado to hit a home run (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.03u | Machado is one of several Padres who have dominated their head-to-head matchup with Kikuchi |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 8.39 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Nico Hoerner to hit a home run (+1480)
Since the start of 2023 (min. 1,100 PA), Nico Hoerner ranks 14th in batting average, fourth in strikeout rate, and 11th in WAR. His 7.7 WAR since the start of 2025 ranks third among all position players.
Hoerner has done a fantastic job of elevating the baseball more recently. From 2019-24, he had a 47% ground ball rate, 53% air rate, and 13.2% pull air rate. This year, he was hitting the ball on the ground just 33.3% of the time entering Friday, along with a 66.7% air rate and 22.2% pull air rate.
📡 SBR Edge: RBI machine
Entering the weekend, Nico Hoerner's .371 batting average with runners in scoring position is the best in the majors since the start of 2025.
🔥 More home run picks today
Andy Pages to hit a home run (+590)
In a Dodgers lineup filled with MVPs, Andy Pages has been the rock to this point. Pages entered the weekend slashing a ridiculous .409/.451/.697, and he and Shohei Ohtani were the only regulars in the lineup with at least five home runs.
After posting hard-hit rates of 40.3% and 37.4% in his first two seasons, Pages is tearing the cover off the ball with a 58.3% hard-hit rate, which makes up for him being on pace for his worst fly ball rate of the three years.
Pages has homered three times in 14 career games at Coors Field, and Ryan Feltner has allowed three home runs in his last two starts.
Manny Machado to hit a home run (+410)
I would not put anyone off building a home run portfolio with multiple Padres hitters, as Manny Machado is one of four San Diego sluggers with multiple career home runs against Yusei Kikuchi (Fernando Tatis Jr., Yuri Gurriel, and Xander Bogaerts are the others).
Among Padres with at least 10 career at-bats against Kikuchi, Machado’s 1.500 OPS is the highest, and his one strikeout in that split suggests he sees the ball well out of the southpaw’s hand. Machado’s two home runs had come within the last 10 games entering Friday, and these are great odds for him to take Kikuchi deep after he allowed two home runs in his last road start.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
All three of these National League sluggers are either facing pitchers in their worse split against a left-handed or right-handed batter, or who rank among the league's worst in home runs allowed. But I also didn't miss an opportunity to take advantage of ballpark factors, like the altitude of Coors Field.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Nico Hoerner to hit a home run
- Andy Pages to hit a home run
- Manny Machado to hit a home run
Best odds: +51014 via DraftKings (0.05u -> 25.51u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-32 | +17.54 units ✅ | +34.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 24-25 | +15.89 units ✅ | +44.1% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
With the exception of JJ Wetherholt, my other three home run picks are sluggers on teams that expect to be atop the NL and MLB leaders in runs scored and home runs.
Like always I didn't allocate more than 0.25 units of my bankroll to any individual home run wager. I also try not to double up on the same game, even though several Dodgers have enticing home run odds. Also, San Diego's wealth of home run hitters are also intriguing portfolio adds, especially since it averaged more than six runs per game by winning 11 of 12 entering Friday.
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