⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, April 16
We're riding with a crew of lefty power sources today in ideal matchups against scuffling hurlers, a group that includes the leading AL Rookie of the Year candidate.
That's Chase DeLauter, who's off to a smouldering start, as is Yordan Alvarez, who continues to tease the heights he could reach if the Houston Astros brute ever stayed healthy for a prolonged period. They lead my home run predictions today and MLB home run picks, and I'm also hoping the awakening of Josh Naylor continues.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 16
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez home run (+331 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.66u | Is on a path of destruction with his 1.250 OPS. |
| Josh Naylor home run (+610 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 1.22u | Historically demolishes right-handers, and hit two homers earlier this week. |
| Chase DeLauter (+477 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.85u | AL ROY leader clubbed five homers over his first seven games. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.73 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+331)
Yordan Alvarez has needed just 84 plate appearances to tally seven homers. He boasts a .333/.488/.762 slash line, translating to an MLB-leading 1.250 OPS. Alvarez is even leaving a fair bit of production on the table with an .861 expected slugging, which sits in the top 1% leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant.
Now he gets to face Chase Dollander for the bulk of his night, who's expected to enter the game after the Colorado Rockies use an opener. Dollander has been regularly steamrolled this season while giving up a 94.1 mph average exit velocity and 62.8% hard-hit rate.
📡 SBR Edge: More coming from Alvarez?
What's even more remarkable is that, by his sky-high slugging standards at least, Alvarez's hard-hit percentage is a little low. It sits at 47.3 right now, and he's finished above 50% three times in his career, including 52.9 last season.
π₯ More home run picks today
Josh Naylor to hit a home run (+610)
Josh Naylor started the season in ice-cold fashion while not registering a hit in his first five games
It's difficult to believe a lefty power bat will stay deep down in the pits of despair much longer. Naylor posted an .816 OPS last year, and he recently started to come back to life with two homers against the Houston Astros on Monday. And now Naylor gets to feast on the 2026 version of Walker Buehler.
Buehler has been rocked for seven earned runs across 12 2/3 innings, and a lackluster secondary offering is largely to blame. He throws his knuckle curve the second-most in his arsenal (17.9% of the time), and opposing batters are slugging .917 against it.
Chase DeLauter to hit a home run (+477)
Rookie sensation Chase Delauter clubbed five homers in his first seven games. He followed that up with a recent stretch of logging a double in four straight outings.
What's most impressive from the MLB Rookie of the Year odds leader in the AL is that a 50% hard-hit rate puts him in the same company as Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber, and his 11.9 barrels per plate appearance percentage slots him ahead of Bryce Harper, Oneil Cruz, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
DeLauter has produced a .673 slugging percentage against fastballs, too. Now he gets to face the Orioles' Shane Baz, and opponents are slugging .824 against his heater.
Our Dustin Saracini is also eyeing Guardians-Orioles as part of his best NRFI bets today.
π Best home run parlay picks today
It's an added bonus that Alvarez and Naylor get to take their hacks today at ballparks that sit among the top-10 for being home run venues this season (Daikin Park and Petco Park), according to Statcast's BallPark Factors.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Yordan Alvarez home run (+320)
- Josh Naylor home run (+610)
- Chase DeLauter home run (+470)
Best odds: +16897 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 3.38u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19-0 | -4.55 units β | -19.9% β |
| Home run picks | 2-15-0 | -2.50 units β | -75.8% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-2 | -0.16 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Betting on home runs is great fun, but a 0.20-unit play has become roughly my standard, though I sometimes creep over it a little if I'm feeling extra confident.
I feel strongly about the case for all three of Naylor, Alvarez, and DeLauter, and perhaps even more so the latter two given the cold start for the Mariners' first baseman. But Alvarez is getting the shortest odds at +331, and even that comes with an implied probability of 23.2%.
As always, play your homer bets with the appropriate sprinkle.
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