⚾ Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Thursday, April 16
📡 SBR Edge: Best NRFI Bets Today for Thursday (April 16)
After going 1-1 last night, it's time to get back to sweeping the board on this fine Thursday. We're targeting the Orioles vs. Guardians and Mariners vs. Padres to get us six simple outs. All four pitchers are going up against teams with a xBA of .250 or worse against them in their specific matchups - we love that. Let's throw up a few zeroes befoe the end of the week, shall we?
ā¾ Best NRFI bets today: April 16
See all of our expertsā MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ā¾ NRFI pick | šµ Units | š Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Orioles vs. Guardians NRFI (-140) | 1u ā .71u | Guardians own .206 xBA vs. Cease |
| Mariners vs. Padres NRFI (-110) | 1u -> .90u | Castillo owns 30% K rate vs. Padres |
Total wagered: 2 unit | Max profit: 1.61 units
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š° Best NRFI bets today for Thursday
Orioles vs. Guardians NRFI (-140) - 6:10 p.m. ET
- Shane Baz (4.50 ERA) vs. Parker Messick (0.51 ERA)
- NRFI records: Orioles (14-4) vs. Brewers (12-7)
Baz hasn't gotten off to his dream start in Baltimore, but he does have a track record of shutting down the Guardians, limiting their top four hitters to a 4-for-16 line against him over the course of his career - that should play. On the other side, Messick has been a bad, bad man for Cleveland, allowing just one earned run across 17.2 innings pitched. Fire this one up with confidence as part of our best NRFI bets today.
🤑 More MLB props
Dive into Sean Tomlinson's home run predictions for Thursday if you're looking to cash in on some long balls today.
Mariners vs. Padres NRFI (-125) - 10:10 p.m. ET
- Luis Castillo (6.92 ERA) vs. Walker Buehler (4.97 ERA)
- NRFI records: Mariners (7-12) vs. Padres (13-5)
Castillo hasn't had the best start to his season, either, but he also has a great history against the Padres, limiting them to a .269 xwOBA while striking them out at a 30% rate. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt one more time with our best NRFI bets today. Buehler is the one man I'm worried about to get us three outs, as the Mariners own a .396 xwOBA against him. We're going to ride with him to live in the zone and rely on his swing-and-miss stuff. Let's get six simple outs and sweep the board.
šµ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | -4.99 units |
| NRFI picks | 11-14 | -2.99 units |
š” How I'm betting NRFI picks today (April 15)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
No matter the day, I look at how a pitcher matches up specifically to the lineup he's taking on. What's their expected batting average against him? What's their strikeout rate? What's each team's NRFI record? More specifically, how do the top three batters fare against a specific pitcher? These are all thoughts that need to run through your mind before placing a high-variance bet like a NRFI, and slide your units accordingly.
ā NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.,
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