⚾ Cardinals vs. Mets Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 10)

Surging and spiraling will be on display during the second contest of a three-game set between the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets from Citi Field at 7 p.m. ET tonight (ESPN).

The Cardinals won easily last night during a 7-0 rout, securing their fifth straight victory. Meanwhile, the talent-filled Mets have picked themselves up somewhat after a poor start, but they're still a disappointing 29-37.

The Cardinals vs. Mets win probability from the prediction market apps nonetheless gives the Mets a 54% chance to prevail. But the most compelling market is a mispriced one tied to first-inning scoring.  

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🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Mets? Live MLB win probability

There's been very little movement in this market, with the Mets' 54% win probability currently residing where it started. There was a brief spike to a high of 57%, and it sat at 55% for a while before falling back down slightly amid nearly $60,000 in trading volume.

The Mets maintain that advantage despite rolling with an opener tonight in Austin Warren. He's been impressive while generating a 24.3% whiff percentage off an intimidating sweeper. The arm-side break on his sinker is also among the best leaguewide, making him the ideal candidate to navigate the top of the Cardinals' order.

I would often be leery of a team's other relievers on a day when the bullpen will be relied on heavily. But Warren is part of a unit that's posted the sixth-best ERA leaguewide (3.26), and it's also holding opposing batters to the sixth-best batting average (.226).

My prediction: Mets win. It's of course not sustainable long term given the physical toll, but the Mets relying on their bullpen is no doubt influencing the win probability here, as their starting rotation sits 16th with a 4.32 ERA.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Cardinals vs. Mets?

Sure, it looks a little odd at first to see only a single name listed for any market, even if that name is Juan Soto and the market is whether he'll hit a home run tonight.

But then you remember Soto has clubbed 13 homers, which means that despite missing time while on an IL stint earlier this season, he still leads his team in that regard comfortably. The next closest on the Mets is Marcus Semien at eight, and Soto is responsible for 19.4% of the club's dingers.

Then on the other side, the Cardinals are also mid-pack in homers while sitting 16th, and there's a similar imbalance of power. Outfielder Jordan Walker leads the way with 16 long balls, and MLB Rookie of the Year Odds top contender JJ Wetherholt is far back with nine.

So we're left with only a yes or no on Soto, which makes even more sense while looking at his underlying metrics. His Baseball Savant page is unsurprisingly glowing with red, but his expected slugging stands out most. It rests at .594, putting him fourth MLB-wide.

My prediction: Juan Soto to hit a home run. The matchup Soto faces tonight comes down to a simple one of power prevailing over power. Cardinals starter Andre Pallante tries to outmuscle lefties while throwing his fastball a whopping 48% of the time to them, and Soto is registering a .679 slugging percentage against four-seamers. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our my best home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Cardinals vs. Mets?

This market has generally sat around the same tossup range since opening while hovering around 49% to 51%.

Which is surprising since we're not dealing with two offensive juggernauts here. The Mets sit 26th in run production, and the Cardinals aren't significantly better in 19th. As a result, these are two of the league's best teams to lean on when banking on a blank first inning. St. Louis has posted MLB's fifth-best NRFI record at 36-28, while the Mets sit just a few spots back in eighth at 35-31.

The Mets using an opener in Warren also gives further support for a blank first inning. The righty relies heavily on his sweeper and sinker, with the former being used 49.6% of the time and generating a .314 slugging percentage, and the latter is limiting hitters to just a .286 slugging.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. The only concern here is Soto going deep right away, though despite his immense power and skill, he's in a homer slump by his high standards and has gone seven games without a round-tripper. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Cardinals vs. Mets win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Mets

• Date: Wednesday, June 10
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (New York)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cardinals starter: Andre Pallante (6-4, 3.96 ERA)
• Mets starter: Austin Warren (1-2, 2.02 ERA)