⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Wednesday, June 10
Yesterday in this space I hit my home run parlay at +9723. I've since spent all the profits on every piece of Hunter Goodman, Sal Stewart, and Tyler Soderstrom merchandise available.
I guess we have to do it again then, and in my home run predictions today I'm leaning on a pair of lefties getting highly appealing matchups in Bryce Harper and Corbin Carroll, and the sizzling Seiya Suzuki.
Let's dive into my MLB home run picks.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 10
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper home run (+390 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.78u | Max Scherzer returns, and he's atrocious against lefties now. |
| Corbin Carroll home run (+440 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.88u | Ryan Gusto comes with similarly putrid numbers against lefties. |
| Seiya Suzuki homer run (+320 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.64u | Sports a 57.9% hard-hit rate against fastballs. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.3 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+390)
Yes, the 2026 version of Bryce Harper may be seeing his prime years fade away. But he can still mash and is sitting on 14 homers, putting him among the top 20 leaguewide. And there's plenty of room for him to regress positively, with a .567 expected slugging that sits notably above his actual mark of .500.
And do you know who else is aging far more rapidly? Max Scherzer, the Blue Jays starter making his return tonight from multiple injuries. Scherzer has been throttled in general when healthy, but lefties like Harper are teeing off for an OPS of 1.037.
📡 SBR Edge: Sliding off into oblivion
Scherzer still fares reasonably well with his four-seamer, but his slider is getting clobbered for a .652 slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run picks today
Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+440)
We see a similar tale with Carroll's matchup, except that the Miami Marlins' Ryan Gusto doesn't have the excuse of being nearly 42 years old.
Gusto has been a starter before, though right now he's more likely to be used as an opener for two to three innings. That's plenty of time for him to allow significant damage though, as we've seen with his gargantuan 10.80 ERA.
That high-volume traffic on the base paths could lead to two appearances for Carroll against Gusto, which is some mouthwatering stuff considering Gusto throws his four-seamer 36.5% of the time, and it's getting tattooed for a .667 expected slugging percentage.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Seiya Suzuki to hit a home run (+320)
Suzuki is often prone to peaks and valleys since he struggles against breaking pitches. But when he's nailing everything else, and especially fastballs, the Chicago Cubs outfielder will usually ride high. That's happening now, as he's registered a 1.095 OPS over the past week.
He's a classic heat hunter with pull-side power. We saw that last year when he was pulling 24.3% of his batted balls in the air, and now again this season with Suzuki's 57.1% hard-hit rate against four-seamers. He doesn't entirely crumble against breaking pitches though, as Suzuki has posted a .595 slugging percentage against sinkers.
That sets him up well tonight against the Rockies' Michael Lorenzen, whose fastball is getting punished for a .710 expected slugging.
π Best home run parlay picks today
There's a whole lot of lefty power in our parlay today between Harper and Carroll. Toss in the always appealing Coors Field matchup through Suzuki, and there's a lot to like about this trio.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Bryce Harper home run (+390)
- Corbin Carroll home run (+440)
- Seiya Suzuki homer run (+320)
Best odds: +11013 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 2.20u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-119-2 | -5.95 units β | -10.0% β |
| Home run picks | 21-80-0 | -1.78 units β | -8.47% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-25 | 0.82 units β | 1.58% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
The place for the greater investment today lies in Harper due to a combination of the rust on Scherzer after he was already struggling, and the Rogers Centre continuing to inflate home run totals.
That venue sits as the sixth-most homer-friendly ballpark leaguewide, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors, putting it four spots higher than Coors Field.
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