⚾ Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Monday, June 15
Zack Wheeler and Chase Burns are great bets to represent the National League in this year’s All-Star Game, and both play big parts in my best NRFI bets today.
Outside of those two NL tilts, I make a third NRFI play on the Tigers-Astros series opener with Detroit coming off a rainout. And my only YRFI wager is from the interleague contest between the Angels and Diamondbacks, as a resurgent Los Angeles offense is largely responsible for the team tying its longest winning streak of the season this week.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: June 15
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Tigers vs. Astros NRFI (+100 via FanDuel) | 1u → 1u | Kai-Wei Teng allows his lowest slugging percentage of any inning in the first. |
| Marlins vs. Phillies NRFI (-125 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.8u | Zack Wheeler has outstanding career numbers against Miami. |
| Mets vs. Reds NRFI (-120 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.83u | Chase Burns has the third-highest strikeout rate since his MLB debut. |
| Angels vs. Diamondbacks YRFI (-118 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.85u | Los Angeles leads the majors in BABIP over the last week. |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.48 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Tigers vs. Astros (8:10 p.m. ET)
- Troy Melton (2.81) vs. Kai-Wei Teng (3.71)
- NRFI records: Tigers (38-33) vs. Astros (28-45)
With a three-game sweep of the Rays not included, the Tigers have scored three or fewer runs in six of their last seven road games. On the season, they rank in the bottom half of the league in wOBA and wRC+ in road games this season.
Houston has cashed the YRFI in 63% of its home games this season. But we’re getting great value on this play with Kai-Wei Teng toeing the rubber, who has allowed 15 runs in his last 14 innings. Teng has a respectable 3.86 first-inning ERA, with a .214 OBA allowed in that split.
📡 SBR Edge: Teng's solid starts
Kai-Wei Teng has given up three earned runs over seven first innings, and his .321 slugging percentage allowed in the first inning is his best of any of the first eight.
🔥 More NRFI picks today
Marlins vs. Phillies (6:40 p.m. ET)
- Ryan Gusto (6.00) vs. Zack Wheeler (2.22)
- NRFI records: Marlins (35-37) vs. Phillies (34-37)
Zack Wheeler has recorded at least 18 outs and allowed two runs or fewer in seven of nine starts, with the Phillies going 7-2 in that span. He has a career 2.68 ERA against the Marlins, including limiting them to just one run on three hits over six innings this season. While Miami scored its only run off Wheeler in the first inning of that game, he was also still finding his rhythm in just his second start of the season.
No Phillies batter has ever faced Ryan Gusto, but his 51.7% ground ball rate compared to a 10.3% fly ball rate plays well when squaring off against home run threats like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
💣️ Dinger hunting
Want dinger picks for tonight? Our Sean Tomlinson has you covered with his best home run predictions today.
Mets vs. Reds (7:10 p.m. ET)
- Tobias Myers (4.05) vs. Chase Burns (2.14)
- NRFI records: Mets (36-35) vs. Reds (35-35)
Chase Burns is 6-0 with a 1.82 ERA over his last 10 starts, while allowing two runs or fewer in 12 of 13 outings. The righty has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in the majors, with the third-best strikeout percentage (32.1%) since his MLB debut on June 24, 2025 (minimum 100 innings).
Burns faces a Mets team that's the fifth-most profitable NRFI team in the league in road games (57%). Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s offense ranks in the top half of the league in ground ball rate, the bottom half in hard contact, and 29th in wRC+ in June.
Angels vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)
- Walbert Urena (2.44) vs. Ryne Nelson (5.19)
- YRFI records: Angels (37-35) vs. Diamondbacks (40-31)
Ryne Nelson allowed seven runs in his last start, his third time this season he's given up at least that many. His ERA over the last 10 starts is now a troubling 5.79, and he's posted a worse ERA and OBA at home than on the road.
The Angels led the majors in BABIP by a wide margin over the last week entering Sunday, as their .378 BABIP was 32 points better than the next best team.
I’m putting much more stock in Los Angeles to score in the first inning, as Walbert Urena has allowed just one earned run in the first inning over 10 starts. But Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll’s combination of speed and power make the Diamondbacks a dangerous threat early.
🚀 Best NRFI parlay today
This four-leg NRFI parlay maintains great odds and a juicy payout despite backing ace-caliber pitchers (Wheeler and Burns) with two of the wagers. I'm also bucking season-long trends in Houston's poor pitching and Los Angeles' low-scoring offense for more recent data that suggests the opposite.
💵 Best NRFI parlay today
- Tigers-Astros NRFI (+100)
- Marlins-Phillies NRFI (-125)
- Mets-Reds NRFI (-122)
- Angels-Diamondbacks YRFI (-118)
Best odds: +1110 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 1.11u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| NRFI picks | 7-4 | +2.05 units ✅ | +18.6% ✅ |
| NRFI parlays | 1-2 | +0.26 units ✅ | +0.1% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting NRFI picks today (June 15)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
With my some of my NRFI/YRFI plays, I'm expecting regression on various levels from Detroit's ability to retire Yordan Alvarez early, to Urena's first-inning ERA being unsustainable. In Urena's case, I'm siding with an Arizona team that's cashed the YRFI in 20 of its 35 home games.
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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