⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, June 15
A shorter Monday slate means it's time to narrow the focus that much further while making your home run predictions today.
The best way to do that is through seeing which batters are poised to frequently see the pitch they destroy often. That applies to a handful of quality options today for my MLB home run picks, and most notably Mike Trout, Yandy Diaz, and Ryan O'Hearn.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 15
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout home run (+327 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.65u | Further regression looms for Ryan Nelson, who's getting hit hard. |
| Yandy Diaz home run (+380 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.76u | Eric Lauer has given up 15 homers over just 52 2/3 innings. |
| Ryan O'Hearn home run (+473 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.95u | Has been demolishing sinkers, and can lock in on that pitch tonight. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.36 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Mike Trout to hit a home run (+327)
Trout's production has cooled since his sizzling start, and the month of June has been especially unkind, as he sports a .149/.286/.234 slash line.
But that concerns us little, as Trout's underlying metrics are still glowing, particularly his expected slugging percentage and barrel rate, which both rest in the 97th percentile or better.
The results will return, and perhaps as soon as tonight. The Diamondbacks' Ryne Nelson throws his fastball a whopping 57.4% of the time, and the slugging percentage allowed on that pitch is .410, much lower than the expected slugging of .510.
📡 SBR Edge: Cutting up cutters
Nelson uses a cutter as one of his secondary pitches, and Trout is posting an .854 slugging percentage against that pitch.
π₯ More home run picks today
Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+380)
Diaz has done plenty of damage while sitting on 12 homers and a .915 OPS. His success comes in part due to quality whiff and strikeout rates that both sit in the 92nd percentile or higher. That leads to more opportunities to tee off on the pitch he wants.
And against Eric Lauer tonight, that should be almost any pitch. Lauer's fastball is among the slowest leaguewide while averaging 90.7 mph. Hitters can then wait on it and be well-positioned to square up Lauer's secondary pitches, one of which is a changeup, and Diaz is slugging .609 against those.
Lauer's lack of velocity and struggles with command lead to an appealing combination that's translated to a ballooning HR/9 of 2.2. He sits tied for ninth in homers allowed at 15, despite throwing only 52 2/3 innings.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Mike Spector's best NRFI bets today.
Ryan O'Hearn to hit a home run (+473)
O'Hearn has been a much-needed source of power for the Pittsburgh Pirates after being a key offseason addition, registering 10 homers with a .791 OPS.
The lefty really excels against sinkers while boasting a .368 batting average, .526 slugging, and 54.5 hard-hit rate. That's crucial for him tonight, as he'll spend much of the evening against the Athletics' J.T. Ginn, who relies on a platter of breaking balls, one of which is a sinker he throws 23% of the time to lefties like O'Hearn.
It's a matchup that's more eye-catching amid a shorter Monday slate. We can get O'Hearn at comparably longer odds than my other two picks, and do it while hoping he can pick on the sinker-reliant Ginn.
π Best home run parlay picks today
Whether it's Trout squaring up a fastball or cutter or O'Hearn doing the same with a sinker, with today's parlay I'm locking in on a group of hitters in ideal positions to punish baseballs while getting the pitch they do best against.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Mike Trout home run (+327)
- Yandy Diaz home run (+380)
- Ryan O'Hearn home run (+473)
Best odds: +11644 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.33u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 39-125-2 | -5.60 units β | -9.2% β |
| Home run picks | 23-85-0 | -1.83 units β | -8.02% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-27 | 0.78 units β | 1.39% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
As always, be safe and careful with your bankroll management in a fun but volatile market. But if you're itching to make a slightly riskier play tonight, do it through Trout despite the shorter odds.
Trout boasts one of the league's highest walk rates at 20.2, and ditto for his chase rate at 19.1. His eye and plate discipline give him consistent chances to launch one, which has greatly contributed to the outfielder's 51.7% hard-hit rate.
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