⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Saturday, May 30
With a loaded 15-game slate today in MLB, we have hundreds of players to choose from to hit a bomb. Will our MLB home run picks feature Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge? No, we're not going with the popular, expensive players.
Instead, my home run predictions today back Andy Pages and Luke Raley in their home stadiums, along with Jazz Chisholm Jr. in West Sacramento, Calif.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 30
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+461 via DraftKings) | 0.33u β 1.5u | Has showcased more power over the last 2Β½ weeks |
| Luke Raley (+550 via BetRivers) | 0.27u β 1.5u | Is slugging .650 with 4 HRs over his last 15 games |
| Andy Pages (+541 via DraftKings) | 0.28u β 1.5u | Is slashing .357 / .400 / .821 with 3 HRs over his last 7 games |
Total wagered: 0.88 units | Max profit: 4.5 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Jazz Chisholm Jr. to hit a home run (+461)
Yankees fans are down on Chisholm this season, but at this price, there's a lot to like. After a rough April, where he batted just .200, he is starting to showcase some power. Over the last two-and-a-half weeks, Chisholm has hit .360 with seven extra-base hits, dragging his season OPS up a full 100 points from .607 to .707.
While it's unlikely he hits a home run today, it's a lot more probable than these +461 odds suggest. The best odds on Chisholm are +475 at Pinnacle, but I'll use +461 for tracking purposes, as it's a widely available number.
📡 SBR Edge: Ginn and Jazz, With My Mind on My Money
J.T. Ginn's most-used pitch is his sinker, which he has thrown 37% of the time this season, and Chisholm has a 42.1% hard-hit rate against sinkers (his second-best pitch type to face after cutters). Ginn's second-most-used pitches are his slider and cutter, which are tied at 17.3%.
π₯ More home run picks today
Luke Raley to hit a home run (+550)
I get Raley at +550 odds even though he's slugging .650 with four home runs over his last 15 games? Sign me up!
This bet has cashed twice in his last four games, and he homered Friday in Seattle. Some people may not like taking a player to homer in back-to-back games, but Raley did just that on May 13-14 against Houston. If he's seeing the ball well and we're getting +550, I have no problem running it back with Raley.
The Mariners outfielder is available at +550 at BetRivers, but this bet is also playable at +456 at DraftKings.
Andy Pages to hit a home run (+541)
Everyone is cutting in line to bet Ohtani home run props whenever the Dodgers play, but Pages is tied with Max Muncy for the team lead with 13, three more than Ohtani. Yes, Ohtani is still more likely to homer moving forward, but with Pages slashing .357 / .400 / .821 with three home runs over his last seven games, +541 is too high of a payout.
DraftKings lists Pages at +541, the best line in the market, but this bet is still playable at +400 at BetMGM.
π Best home run parlay picks today
DraftKings has the best price on both Chisholm and Pages, so we're heading there to place this two-leg parlay at +3354. FanDuel offers the same parlay at +3292.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ home runs
- Andy Pages 1+ home runs
Best odds: +3354 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 3.35u)
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
My main strategy when betting home run props is to find mispriced lines. You can find the best matchups possible on paper, but if you're not betting a mispriced line, you're likely going to lose in the long run. I'm also more conservative when betting home run props, as these markets carry a much higher hold than -110/-110 spreads or totals.
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